機車使用者移轉至電動腳踏車偏好之研究

A study on motorcycle users' mode transfer preference to electric bicycles

任禮恩(Li-En Jen)

指導教授 ： 羅永光

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/碩士(2004年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2004.10070

摘要

新世代運輸發展正面臨空氣污染與環境能源兩大重要課題，電動車輛發展亦於此時受到重視。電動腳踏車因技術需求較電動汽車與電動機車低，已成為我國電動車輛中較容易發展的技術。台灣都會區機車污染問題嚴重，在過去推行電動機車效果不彰的情形下，電動腳踏車以其特性與機車較相近之優勢，有成為機車之替代運具的潛力。因此本研究以居住於台北市的機車使用者為研究對象，利用個體選擇理論與敘述性偏好調查法，了解機車使用者選擇改用電動腳踏車之偏好情形。
　　本研究主要透過實驗設計與問卷調查以得知影響選擇電動腳踏車之重要因素與敘述性偏好資料。問卷內容包括電動腳踏車之基本特性、假設情境組合之運具偏好、機車使用者現況、受訪者基本資料等四部分。調查結果顯示，最有可能影響個人選擇使用電動腳踏車之因素，依序分別為「銷售價格的高低」、「充電後可行駛的距離」、「充電與維修地點的方便性」、「充電時間的長短」、「行駛速度的快慢」、「使用與維修成本的多寡」、「爬坡性能可否滿足需求」等；總言之，價格與性能是機車使用者轉用電動腳踏車的最重要因素。
　　所蒐集之敘述性偏好資料用以對二項羅吉特模式進行校估，過程中發現，售價在效用函數中並非與其他變數相互獨立。本研究嘗試將售價與最高時速相除，作為新的解釋變數，校估結果顯示該變數對模式之解釋能力良好。最佳模式則包含是否為學生之社經特性虛擬變數。透過校估之模式計算機車使用者選擇電動腳踏車的機率，在所擬定之接近現況的情境下為18.87%。若無政府力量之配合，僅電動腳踏車廠商與業者於外在環境限制下就技術能力可及範圍內發展，選擇機率可增加至44.01%。當電動腳踏車各項性能與相關使用環境皆達到理想最佳水準，機車使用者會選擇電動腳踏車的機率為61.97%。敏感度分析結果則發現，提供設置專用行駛空間以鼓勵機車使用者使用電動腳踏車，成效不如改善電動腳踏車之性能顯著，因此要提高選擇電動腳踏車的機率，改善電動腳踏車本身的性能方為較有效之作法。最後，電動腳踏車定位應以短途旅次與接駁運具之用，為有效解決都會區機車污染問題，未來應繼續發展與推廣電動機車。

關鍵字

敘述性偏好 ； 個體選擇理論 ； 電動腳踏車

並列摘要

Electric bicycles have been developed recently in Taiwan to help mitigate air pollution problems. In Taiwan’s metropolitan areas, air pollution from mobile sources is serious. Electric bicycles have the potential to be the substitute for motorcycles because of their good price and performance. This study employed discrete choice theory and stated preference (SP) survey method to learn about Taipei’s motorcycle users’ mode transfer preference to electric bicycles.
　　A comprehensive questionnaire survey was undertaken to find out major factors of mode transfer from motorcycles to electric bicycles. They are price, range per recharge, convenience of recharge and maintenance, recharge time, speed, operating and maintenance cost, climbing ability, and so on. It implies that price and performance characteristics of electric bicycles are the most important factors.
　　Stated preference data is used to calibrate binary logit model. Price divided by speed was employed for a better model. The optimal model employed a dummy variable “student or not”. The probability of switching to electric bicycles by motorcycle users is 18.87% in current condition. It will reach 44.01% if electric bicycle manufacturers’ technical improvements reach their best possible solution. The mode transfer probability will reach 61.97% if performance characteristics and riding environment of electric bicycles reach ideal conditions. Sensitivity analysis found that improving performance characteristics is more effective than providing exclusive lanes to encourage the using electric bicycles. Electric bicycles should be used for short distance trips or as short feeder mode. Electric motorcycles need to be promoted continually to better solve air pollution problems in metropolitan areas.

並列關鍵字

stated preference ； discrete choice theory ； electric bicycle

參考文獻

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