市地重劃中土地報酬率影響因子之研究

Factors Affecting the Land Returns During Urban Land Consolidation

夏恒生(Heng Sheng Hsia)

指導教授 ： 荷世平

共同指導教授 ： 許耀文(Yao-Wen Hsu)

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/碩士(2018年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201801472

摘要

民國103年桃園市晉升六都後，周遭及內部開發案如雨後春筍般出現，舉凡新住宅社區開發、機場捷運等等。在新社區開發方面，桃園市政府透過市地重劃方式，興辦各項公共設施，以更新都市機能，並達成地盡其利的目的。重劃完成後，對於參與重劃之土地所有權人，將獲得交換分合後形狀整齊適合開發之土地，具高度可投資性。然而重劃案過程曠日費時，故從重劃過程何階段切入進行土地投資以獲得最大之報酬率實為一值得探討之問題。
本研究利用計量經濟學的方法，選用小檜溪暨埔子市地重劃區和經國市地重劃區兩不同重劃方式之案件為例。先根據過往文獻及專家訪談的方式蒐集可能影響土地投資之變數，再利用政府公開資訊取得土地交易相關數據，並以特徵價格理論之基礎建立土地年報酬率模型，使用統計軟體EViews 8.0進行最小平方法迴歸檢定分析，分析模型內自變數之係數和其對應變數之顯著性。
迴歸結果顯示：重劃過程中特定重大事件有其代表意義，但不一定會反映在土地年報酬率上，而土地本身的部分自有條件在適當的投資時間點時會是投資者考量之因素，因此，在適當的時間點選擇適當的投資標的是身為一位投資人的必修課題。

關鍵字

都市更新 ； 年報酬率 ； 市地重劃

並列摘要

Taoyuan City has been promoted to one of the six special municipalities in Taiwan in 2014. Since then both new development and redevelopment projects, such as new residential communities and Taoyuan International Airport MRT, have blossomed. The improvisation plans of public areas and rezoning of private lands are carried out to renew outdated city tasks and to provide mutual benefits to both private landowners and the general public. Although landowners, urban developers, and investors who participated in the rezoning process will most likely benefit from properties that are better consolidated, the process can be inefficient and time-consuming. There are multiple stages throughout the process of land consolidation and this research aims to exploit the best timing for investment that leads to maximum profit.
Econometrics method was used on two urban land consolidation projects to conduct the empirical research of this thesis. Variables affecting land investment were recognized and sorted through expert interview, multiple collected references, and public information provided by the government. Furthermore, models of annualized land return rate is built based on Hedonic Price Theory. The significance and coefficient of each individual variable is determined after the regression analysis is conducted by ordinary least square method using statistical software EViews 8.0.
The output of the regression indicates that meaningful milestones or important events happened during the rezoning process don’t always reflect on the annualized land return rate. The most influential factors that result in great impact on the return rate are mostly related to land conditions, capability evaluation, and investment timing. Therefore, selecting appropriate property target and investing in the right timing will be the most crucial factors to consider for investors.

並列關鍵字

zone expropriation ； annualized land return ； land consolidation ； rezoning

參考文獻

國內文獻：

1. 王潔敏，2007，大眾運輸系統對房地產價格之影響研究-以高雄大都會區為例，國立成功大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文。

2. 行政院國家發展委員會國土區域離島發展處，2017，都市及區域發展統計彙編：第40-48頁。

3. 吳宗青，1998，臺南市主要交通主軸地價分布及變動影響因素之研究，國立成功大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文。

4. 杜宇璇、宋豐荃、曾禹瑄、葛仲寧及陳奉瑤，2013，台灣特徵價格模型之回顧分析，土地問題研究季刊，第12卷，第2期：第44-57頁。