東亞區域經濟整合的發展與展望

The Development and Prospects of East Asian Economic Integration

張勝峰(Sheng-Feng Chang)

指導教授 ： 黃仁德

共同指導教授 ： 杜震華

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.01025

摘要

中文摘要
世界貿易組織2001年展開的杜哈談判失利後，簽署區域貿易協定成為區域經濟整合的主流模式，至2010年11月為止，經世界貿易組織公告生效的區域貿易協定達到290個 (自由貿易協定達160個，關稅同盟達15個)。從區域來看，東亞區域簽署的區域貿易協定有47個，且大多集中在2004年後簽訂。
東亞區域經濟合作的歷史最早可追溯至日本於1940年提出的大東亞共榮圈， 1997年爆發的亞洲金融風暴則真正讓東亞各國意識到區域合作的重要性。東亞區域內貿易比重不斷增加的趨勢，也說明東亞各國愈來愈緊密的貿易關係，更為未來自由貿易協定進行經濟整合奠定良好的基礎。事實上，東協已於2002年形成東協自由貿易區，從東協加上中日韓三國飛躍增加的人口數與國內生產毛額來可看出東亞區域經濟合作後的雄厚經濟潛力。事實上，東亞區域的經濟實力已不遜於歐盟與北美自由貿易區，東亞區域的經濟實力也說明東亞區域經濟合作未來若不斷的深化，對世界經濟的影響力將會愈來愈大。
除了貿易面日益緊密之外，東亞各國在1997年的亞洲金融風暴後意識到區域金融整合與合作的必要性，然而，東亞各國在貨幣、債券市場的相關性仍偏低，東亞區域各國相互的投資與持有債權所佔的比重也呈現偏低的現象，大部分的投資與持有的債權來源都集中於亞洲區域之外，也表示亞洲的資金大多流向亞洲之外的國家。同樣的，東亞各國在區域內的跨境銀行債權、股票投資、長 (短) 期債券的比重及金額也都低於歐洲區域的比重及金額。這顯示東亞區域金融整合程度仍然偏低，而主要原因可能是東亞各國金融市場自由化程度仍不高，貨幣及匯率制度的不穩定。總的來說，東亞區域內的金融整合仍然有很大的進步空間。
東亞區域經濟合作提高東亞對世界經濟的影響力，但身處東亞樞紐的台灣在國際政治因素限制下，至今卻未融入東亞區域經濟整合中。單純從經濟數據來看，台灣經濟力量與總體競爭力優於東亞許多國家，若臺灣能參與東亞經濟整合，將可帶給東亞各國正面的外溢效果，對於促進東亞經濟的繁榮與成長將會有積極的貢獻。台灣與中國在2010年簽訂兩岸經濟合作架構協議 (ECFA) 後，在此基礎之上，台灣不應被排除在東亞區域經濟合作之外，簽訂兩岸經濟合作架構協議應是台灣進一步參與東亞經濟整合的前奏。如果台灣因為與中國大陸的政治因素而無法站在東亞區域經濟合作的舞台上，損失的不僅是台灣，東亞各國所冀望的區域經濟合作之利也將大打折扣。

關鍵字

東亞 ； 區域合作 ； 經濟整合 ； 金融整合 ； 臺灣

並列摘要

ABSTRACT
World Trade Organization Doha negotiations launched in 2001 after losing to sign regional trade agreements as a regional economic integration in the mainstream model. Up to November 2010, the World Trade Organization announced effective area reached 290 trade agreements. From a regional perspective, East Asia regional trade agreements signed with 47, and most of them concentrated in 2004 after the signing.
History of regional economic cooperation in East Asia can be traced back to Japan in 1940, the Greater East Asia cooperation proposed by the 1997 outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, East Asian countries are so aware of the real importance of regional cooperation. The proportion of intra-regional trade in East Asia rising trend also shows that East Asian countries increasingly close trade ties, more future free trade agreements to lay a good foundation for economic integration. In fact, the formation of ASEAN in 2002 the ASEAN Free Trade Area, from the ASEAN plus Japan and South Korea to increase the population with a leap of gross domestic product to regional economic cooperation in East Asia can be seen after the strong economic potential. In fact, East Asia's economic strength is no longer inferior to the European Union and NAFTA, East Asia's economic strength also shows that East Asian regional economic cooperation in the future if it continued to deepen, the influence on the world economy will be growing.
In addition to the increasingly close trade area, the East Asian countries in the 1997 Asian financial crisis regional financial integration and realize the need for cooperation. However, East Asian countries in the currency, bond market correlation is still low, the East Asian countries in the region between the investment and debt holders have shown a low proportion of the phenomenon, most of the sources of investment and debt holdings are concentrated in the Asian region, but also that most of Asia's capital flows to Asian countries outside. Similarly, East Asian countries in the region of cross-border bank debt, equity investments, long (short) and the proportion of the amount of bonds are also lower than the proportion of the European region and the amount. This shows the extent of the East Asian regional financial integration remains low, but probably mainly due to East Asian countries is still a high degree of financial market liberalization, monetary and exchange rate instability. Overall, the East Asian financial integration within the region there is still much room for improvement.
East Asian regional economic integration in East Asia increased influence on the world economy, but the East Asian hub for Taiwan in the international political constraints, has not been integrated into regional economic integration in East Asia. Purely from the economic data, Taiwan's economic strength and overall competitiveness is better than many countries in East Asia, if Taiwan can participate in the East Asian economic integration, East Asian countries will be able to bring positive spillover effects for the promotion of economic prosperity and growth in East Asia will be positive contribution. Taiwan and China signed ECFA in 2010, in this basis, Taiwan should not be excluded in the East Asian regional economic cooperation. If Taiwan and mainland China because of political factors, regional economic cooperation in East Asia can not stand on the stage, the loss of not just Taiwan, East Asian countries are hoping the benefits of regional economic cooperation will be greatly reduced.

並列關鍵字

East Asia ； regional economic cooperation ； economic integration ； financial integration ； Taiwan

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