內陸發展中國家的可持續經濟增長

Essays on Sustainable Economic Growth in Landlocked Developing Countries

歐琪曼(Maralgua Och)

指導教授 ： 唐代彪

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/博士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201704270

摘要

本論文是四篇文章的集合。 總體主題是“內陸發展中國家的可持續經濟增長”。 雖然可持續經濟發展的主題是在增長文獻中確立的，但並不詳盡。 此外，與內陸發展中國家有關的知識和研究差距很大。 因此，本論文旨在填補這一研究空白。 其主要目的是為決策者提供強大可靠的實證結果和一般的宏觀經濟框架。 因此，我們的目標是系統地分析經濟增長與被認為影響和作為可持續經濟增長前提條件的一系列因素之間的長期關係。 從我們的實證結果，我們討論政策影響。

關鍵字

內陸發展中國家 ； 蒙古 ； 可持續經濟增長 ； 發展經濟學 ； 能源經濟學

並列摘要

The dissertation at hand is a collection of four essays with a bridging theme of “Sustainable Economic Growth in Landlocked Developing Countries”. Although the topic of sustainable economic development is established in the growth literature, it is not exhaustive. Moreover, the gap in knowledge and research pertaining to landlocked developing countries (LLDC) specifically is substantial. Therefore, this dissertation aims to fill the aforementioned gap by applying a series of econometric methods on panel, as well as individual time series, data on LLDCs. Its main aim is to provide authorities in LLDCs with: (1) robust and reliable estimation results; as well as a (2) general macroeconomic framework, upon which they may base and formulate policies. In doing so, our objectives were to systematically analyze the long-run relationships between economic growth and a series of factors that are deemed by the growth literature to influence – if not serve as pre-requisites for – sustainable economic growth. From our findings, policy implications are then drawn.

In the first essay, we analyzed the long-run, cointegrating, and causal relationships between economic growth in LLDCs and debt, sector growth, macroeconomic instability, financial development, human capital accumulation, inflation, infrastructure, domestic and foreign investment, natural resource endowments, official development aid (ODA), international remittances, indirect taxes, and trade using panel data on 14 LLDCs. Across all the specifications employed, we showed macroeconomic instability, ODA, and remittance inflows to be robust negative determinants of economic growth in LLDCs. In the same token, we also showed growth in all the economic sectors, financial development, debt, government expenditure, exports, natural resource wealth, remittance outflows, indirect taxes, domestic investment, inflation, and political freedom to be robust positive determinants of economic growth in LLDCs. We uncovered feedback mechanisms between economic growth and: the agriculture and industry sectors, financial development, exports, macroeconomic instability, inflation, domestic investment, natural resource wealth, international remittances, and indirect taxes. We also found uni-directional causality running from economic growth to: debt and government expenditure, ODA, and the manufacturing and services sectors.

In the second essay, we concentrated on identifying the macroeconomic determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in LLDCs, by taking Mongolia as a case study. In doing so, we analyzed the cointegrating, long-run, short-run, and causal relationships between FDI and a multitude of economic variables. Ultimately, we showed that in spite of the FDI-led growth path Mongolia has embarked on since its dual transition in the early 1990s, the FDI-growth nexus does not exist for Mongolia; lending credence to the theory that vertical FDI targeting the natural resource sector does little to generate long-term economic growth on the host-economy. We also showed macroeconomic instability and financial liberalization to share negative long-run associations with FDI inflows. On the other hand, imports and domestic investment were found to have a complementary relationship with FDI. According to our results, our main finding highlights the importance of translating the expected positive externalities arising from FDI into long-run sustainable economic growth, as FDI inflows were not found to lead to inevitable economic growth.

In the third essay, we investigated the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for LLDCs, using Mongolia as a case study, concerning carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (NOx) emissions. To realize this, we studied the cointegrating, long-run, and short-run relationships between per capita national income and the two pollution indicators, along with other relevant variables that would influence the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation. We debunked the existence of the EKC hypothesis for Mongolia; thereby, showing that sustainable economic growth should be cautiously pursued without exacerbating environmental degradation in LLDCs. We also illustrated the highly polluting nature of Mongolia’s imports and exports, the detrimental influence of the agricultural sector on NOx emissions, and the significance of the rural population’s integration into the central heating system in reducing pollution.

Finally in the fourth essay, we deliberated on the interspatial dependence of LLDCs on their immediate neighbors in terms of economic growth by also taking Mongolia as a case study due to its relatively unique position of being situated in between two economic and political powerhouses, China and Russia. In order to accomplish this, the cointegrating, long-run, short-run, and causal relationships between Mongolia’s national income and China and Russia’s economic growth rates were investigated in conjunction with Mongolia’s FDI, exports, macroeconomic instability, and services sector development. We revealed the presence of interspatial dependence between Mongolia, China, and Russia; thereby, demonstrating the economic sensitivity of LLDCs to the economic conditions of its neighbors. We showed that to an extent, Mongolia’s and China’s incomes are substitutive, while Mongolia’s and Russia’s incomes are complementary. Furthermore, exchange rate depreciation and FDI were found to share negative long- and short-run associations with economic growth in Mongolia; thereby, reiterating the harmful effects of macroeconomic instability on sustainable growth, and the inability of the Mongolian authorities to transfer the revenues garnered from FDI inflows into productive sectors. On the flip side, positive feedback mechanisms were found between economic growth, exports and the services sector; serving as evidence of the importance of an export- and services-oriented economy in attaining sustainable economic growth.

並列關鍵字

Landlocked developing countries ； Mongolia ； sustainable economic growth ； development economics ； energy economics

參考文獻

Introduction

Enders, Walter. (2004). Applied Econometric Time Series. 2nd ed. John Wiley & Sons. New Jersey.

Newey, W.K. and West, K.D. (1994). “Automatic lag selection in covariance matrix estimation.” The Review of Economic Studies 61(4): 631-653.

Schwarz, Gideon. (1978). “Estimating the dimension of a model.” The Annals of Statistics 6(2): 461-464.

Chapter 1