地景動態變遷預測模式之研究－以台大實驗林和社地區為例

The Prediction Models of Landscape Dynamic Changes in Heshe The Prediction Models of Landscape Dynamic Changes in Heshe Area, the Experimental Forest of National Taiwan University

薛怡珍(I-Chen Hsueh)

指導教授 ： 李國忠 ； 邱祈榮

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/森林學研究所/博士(2005年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2005.00538

摘要

台大實驗林管理處為達成林業之永續經營與發展，依據森林生態系經營的理念，規劃教學實習及試驗研究，同時，考慮生態系的地景完整性、生物多樣性，以及固有物種及動物生境之保存，並融合轄區內地方機會需求及環境倫理價值，維護生態環境發揮森林多目標經營之功能，以彰顯實驗林示範經營之績效。森林生態系經營（forest ecosystem management, FEM）即是以生態學的理念於森林地區落實經營管理，包括族群動態、演替與更新機制、干擾、養分循環等。森林永續經營管理或生態系經營管理的宗旨為維持森林生態系統的健康與恢復，追求生態系統整體所提供的全部效益和價值，並要在地景的水平層次上長期保持森林的活力、生產力、生物多樣性及再生能力。森林是否達到生態系經營管理的成效則必須加以定期監測，而監測的指標與經營管理的指標上「森林面積」的變化消長則是主要的重點，進行森林面積（森林覆蓋率總量）的動態監測也是當前森林生態系經營管理的主要任務之一。
森林面積的動態監測重點著重於地景空間動態的變化，包括森林面積區塊的數量、大小、周長，區塊形狀的規律性、團聚程度、分佈的複雜程度，以及區塊的多樣性、均勻度等。在地景生態學中有關地景變遷常見的模式所著重的也是以強調在「地景水平層級上」的土地分佈面積。過去在電腦及地理資訊系統技術尚未發展成熟前，對於森林面積的總量監測，主要仍採用抽樣統計的方法，以樣本推測森林面積的總體總量。如今藉助3S的技術，並配合地面調查，對於森林面積的總量監測的工作就更可以具體的落實與執行。本研究以台大實驗林和社地區為研究區，結合地理資訊系統技術、灰色預測及灰色馬可夫模式進行研究區的森林地景類型面積變化的模擬及預測，並以地景生態學理論為基礎，以驅動力（driving force）及區塊類型形成機制的概念分析歷年研究區因干擾所造成的地景類型之地覆面積消長之情況，據此提出經營管理的策略與建議。

關鍵字

地景指數 ； 台大實驗林 ； 尺度推繹 ； 地景變遷 ； 灰色-馬可夫模式 ； 森林生態系經營 ； 灰色系統理論、馬可夫模式、灰色預測（模式）

並列摘要

The administration of the Experiment Forest of National Taiwan University has considered the conceptions of forest ecosystem management (FEM) and landscape completeness and ecodiversity; the districts of teaching and experimental areas, and research area, is planned in order to preserve of biological habitats, to merge local requirements and value of environmental ethics, and to maintain multi-purpose management functions so as to manifest the effective and management in Experiment Forest of National Taiwan University and to achieve sustainable management and development of forestry. FEM practices these conceptions in terms of ecology such as populations dynamics, mechanism of succession, regeneration, disturbance, nutrient recycle, etc. The objective of forest sustainable management or ecosystem management is to maintain the health and restoration of forest ecosystem, to achieve all benefits and values which are provided by ecosystem, and to keep vitality, productivity, biodiversity and regenerative capability of forest at landscape level. It has to set a forest environment monitoring system for evaluating the efficiency of ecosystem management. The key point of monitoring as well as management indication is the fluctuated change of forest areas. Currently, one of the main tasks of the EM (ecological management) is to carry out the monitoring of change of forest areas (=the total amount of forest coverage).
The monitoring of forest areas focuses on the dynamic change of landscape space, including numbers, sizes, perimeters of patches, and regularity, aggregation and distribution complexity of patch shapes, as well as diversity and evenness of patches, etc. The commonly used models of landscape change emphasize on the total areas of land distribution at landscape level. In the past, since the technology of computer and GIS has not well developed, the methodology of monitoring the amount of forest areas relied on calculation by sampling. Nowadays, it is greatly improved by 3S and the ground survey. The study site is located at He-she Area of the Experimental Forest, National Taiwan University. In the present study, GIS, the theory of landscape ecology, three models including GM, Markov mdoel (MM) and GMM, and the concept of driving force have been applied to analyze the conditions of the fluctuated change of forest areas (i.e., the amount of forest coverage) in terms of disturbance over the period of 45 years and the reasons causing landscape changes. Strategies and suggestions of forest management are proposed based on the above-mentioned analyses.

並列關鍵字

Scaling ； Grey Prediction Model (GM) ； Landscape Index ； Grey-Markov Model (GMM) ； Forest Ecosystem Management ； Markov Model (MM) ； Grey System Theory ； The Experimental Forest of National Taiwan University ； Landscape Change

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