一帶一路倡議下國際物流運輸網路再佈局之分析研究

International Logistics and Transportation Network Reconfiguration in the Belt and Road Strategic Context

昆天莫(Tanmoy Kundu)

指導教授 ： 許鉅秉

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/商學研究所/博士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201900903

摘要

在國際供應鍊網絡中，國際物流和運輸網絡配置乃是業者與政策制定者為確保有效率的運輸方式及有效分配物流的重要戰略決策；而為應對各種不確定的狀況，諸如天然災害或計劃性的新猷，例如因應全球化競爭與新經濟走廊的出現（新貿易路線），此時國際物流和運輸網絡的重新配置即涉及在國際供應鍊網絡中重新配置物流配送流程與其相關的運輸模式。
最近中國政府為發展國際物流走廊提出的「一帶一路倡議」（BRI）是近年來關於重新配置物流及運輸網絡的一個大型項目。因此，目前的研究將分為三個目標，將有助於BRI引起重組國際物流和運輸網絡之研究。
第一個目標為探究一帶一路倡議對國際物流配送其運輸路線選擇的影響。基於此本研究提出了一種基於摩擦功能和電路理論概念的時空交互模型，並根據兩個中國石油物流的案例進行了數值預測，以說明該模型的有效性。
第二個目標為分析跨政府政策干預對國際物流配送流程和路徑選擇決策的影響。本研究提出了一種基於博弈理論和時空交互方法的兩階段物流配送模型來決定跨政府干預（合作和非合作政策）下的物流配送模式；此外，為了說明所提出的模型的有效性，使用了一個中國石油運輸數據的案例。
第三個目標為調查政府補貼對推廣交通方式的影響。本研究提出了在一帶一路倡議的策略背景下一個基於博弈理論概念發展出來的競爭模型（Belt vs. Road）以分析政府補貼對托運人運輸模式選擇（鐵路與海運）及運輸模式轉換行為（海運轉換至鐵路）的影響。此外，更進一步提出一個中國 - 德國航線貨櫃運輸的案例來支持模型的有效性。
最後研究結果建議在一帶一路倡議的戰略環境中，關於政策制定者（政府）的政策制定策略（跨政府合作政策和交通方式促進補貼計劃）、承運人的路線選擇決策以及托運人的模式選擇決策

關鍵字

國際物流網絡重組 ； 貨運 ； 跨政府乾預 ； 運輸方式轉換行為 ； 博弈論 ； 石油供應鏈 ； 中德貨運 ； 一帶一路

並列摘要

International logistics and transportation network configuration is an important strategic decision that practitioners and policymakers undertake to ensure the transportation mode efficiencies and effective distribution of their logistics flow in an international supply chain network. Accordingly, international logistics and transportation network reconfiguration deals with reconfiguring the logistics distribution flows and the associated transportation modes in an international supply chain network in response to various uncertain conditions, such as natural disasters, or planned initiatives, such as matching global competition and development of new economic corridors (new trading routes).
The Belt and Road initiative (BRI) that was recently introduced by the Chinese government for developing its international logistics corridors is one such massive planned initiative in the recent times that involves reconfiguration of logistics and transportation networks at an international level. Accordingly, this work has been categorized into three potential objectives that contribute to the study of BRI induced international logistics and transportation network reconfiguration.
The first objective deals with investigating the impact of BRI on transportation route selection for international logistics distribution flows. A spatial-temporal interaction model based on the concept of friction function and electrical circuit theory is proposed. Further, numerical forecasts based on two cases of Chinese oil logistics flows is carried out to account for the effectiveness of the proposed model.
The second objective analyzes the effect of cross-governmental policy intervention on international logistics distribution flows and route choice decisions. Accordingly, a two-stage logistics distribution flow model based on game theory and spatial-temporal interaction approach is proposed to determine the logistics distribution flow patterns under cross-governmental intervention (cooperative and non-cooperative policies). Further, to account for the effectiveness of the proposed model, a case of Chinese oil transportation is utilized.
The third objective investigates the impact of government subsidy for transportation mode promotion. Accordingly, a competition model (Belt vs. Road) grounded in the game-theoretic concept is proposed to analyze the effect of government subsidy on shipper’s mode choice (Rail vs. Maritime), and mode switching behavior (Maritime to Rail) in the BRI strategic context. Further, a numerical case of container shipping along the China-Germany route is considered to support the model validity.
Analytical results suggest strategies of policy development (cross-governmental cooperative policies and subsidy schemes for transportation mode promotion) for the policymakers (governments), route choice decisions for the carriers and mode choice decisions for the shippers in the BRI strategic context.

並列關鍵字

International logistics network reconfiguration ； Freight transportation ； cross-governmental intervention ； Mode switching behavior ； Spatial-temporal interaction approach ； Game theory ； Oil supply chain ； China-Germany freight ； Belt and Road Initiative.

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