中國與「一帶一路」國家貿易結構及貿易潛力之研究

「一帶一路」戰略思想的提出，使中國在新的經濟趨勢下擁有了更廣闊的國際貿易空間。本文將在「一帶一路」戰略背景下分析中國與「一帶一路」沿線國家的貿易結構和貿易出口潛力。本從「一帶一路」貿易結構入手，分別從總體層面、國家分類層面、產品分類層面三個維度進行研究。接著本文選取了 2011-2016年間的面板資料對中國與56個國之間出口額進行迴歸測算，將貿易潛力模型進行了修正，加入了國家開放程度、人口和是否簽訂自貿協定三個新變量，用STATA軟件進行計量分析，探究了影響中國對「一帶一路」沿線國家出口貿易的因素。根據出口潛力的大小本文將沿線國家貿易充分型和貿易不足型兩類。本文主要的研究目的有三。首先明確中國與「一帶一路」沿線國家貿易額和貿易趨勢；第二要研究中國與「一帶一路」沿線國家貿易結構；最後研究中國與「一帶一路」周邊國家的貿易潛力。通過分析得出以下結論：第一，由於陸運水運的不同導致「一路」國家貿易額占主導，同時由於中國有效需求不足和政策導向的問題導致貿易順差過大；第二，進出口產品中勞動密集型工業產品佔比過高導致中國貿易結構不合理，同時中國人均資源不足導致中國對初級產品進口需求的增加；第三，物流條件不同和國家貿易能力不同導致了「一帶」和「一路」國家貿易潛力差別較大。最後，對於目前「一帶一路」貿易存在的問題提出政策建議

關鍵字

一帶一路；貿易結構；引力模型；出口潛力

並列摘要

By “The Belt and Road” strategy, China is strengthening its competitive advantage on international trade sector. This thesis is to analyze the trade structure and export potential of countries along “The Belt and Road”. Firstly, the research is composed of three dimensions: general level, national level, and product level. Furthermore, I selected penal data of trades between China and other fifty-six countries from 2011 to 2016 for regression. Moreover, I revised the by adding openness level of countries factor, population factor and FTA factor. There are three purposes of this thesis. First, I am going to identify the trend in trades between China and “The Belt and Road” countries. Secondly, I am going to analyze the trade structure between China and “The Belt and Road” countries. Thirdly, I want to identify the trade potential in these countries. Finally, I reached three conclusion. Firstly, due to the difference between sea route and land route, The Road countries dominate the trade volume with China. In addition, Chinese policy and lack of demand for goods from the belt countries lead to enormous favorable balance of trade. Secondly, labor-intensive products accounting for largest part of trade make Chinese trade structure unreasonable. Thirdly, logistic conditions and trade capabilities lead to the great difference of trade potential between The Belt countries and The Road countries.

並列關鍵字

The Belt and Road strategy ； Trade Structure ； Gravity Model ； Export Potential

參考文獻

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[6] Evans. Some empirical aspects of multi-sided platform industries 2003

[7] McCallum J. National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns. American Economics Review. 1995

國際替代計量

中國與「一帶一路」國家貿易結構及貿易潛力之研究

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