本研究分析林務局嘉義林管處自民國78年1月至民國92年12月,共13年總計215次林火記錄。並依照其內的四個事業區(大埔、玉山、玉井與阿里山)進行分區探討,以瞭解各事業區內林火好發時間與林班,並探究其發生原因。 研究發現,事業區內的不同特徵因子將影響林火之發生頻度與強度。這些特徵因子包括林間活動人口數、活動類型、道路密度與經營目標…等。 分別就林火好發月份、敏感地區、好發原因以及燃燒面積之分佈模型進行探究後發現:第一、在好發月份分析方面,結果顯示,林火由每年的11月開始,至翌年二月達到高峰,爾後逐漸下降,至五月方休。此現象除與該區域乾季相符外,亦與該區社會經濟活動有密切關連。第二、在敏感地區分析方面,主要分佈在大埔營林區,此區發生林火次數占研究期間總次數之61.86%。該營林區為開墾甚早的農作密集地區,且道路密度高,因為進入林間的容易度增加,使得林間人為活動之頻繁度亦增加而成為潛在林火發生之主因。綜合分析結果,每次燃燒面積都不大,搭配林火好發地點的人文社經活動予以分析,原因在於林火頻繁地區均在農作與人口密集區域,易被及時發現並以便捷交通網撲滅林火。
This study applied geographical information system and statistical methods to analyze historical wildfire data in the Chiayi Forest District of Taiwan Forestry Bureau from 1950 to 2003. The results revealed characteristics of wildfire such as intended occurring month, potential burning location, fire-favored tree species, frequencies, and burning area. First, annual wildfires start in November, reach to the peak in February, and then decrease to end until May. It not only matches the dry seasons of the research area, but also has a deep implication in which the relationship with the social-economic activities relies on. Second, as discussing the potential burning locations and frequencies, we find that Da-pu Management Unit is the most frequent fire-tendency compartment, which occupy 61.86% frequency of all the wildfires. The reasons lead to its early economic developments and social activities. The estimated burning area is fairly small. Combining the information of social-economic activities in these potential areas, the reason shows the way to the quick notice and extinguishments of wildfire because of a dense population and convenient traffic network.