水污染總量管制之風險分析與排放交易研究

A Study of Risk Analysis and Effluent Trading for Total Mass Control of Water Pollution

李貞憓(Jen-Huei Li)

指導教授 ： 童慶斌

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/生物環境系統工程學研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.10376

摘要

永續性河川水質管理是在不超過環境承載力與符合世代之公平性原則下，滿足經濟社會發展需求，採取的手段為進行河川污染總量管制。河川污染總量管制乃是希望在訂定水體使用願景與可承擔的風險下，分配總量並管制污染排放量使河川能符合水質標準。倘若污染排放者無法將污染量降至允許的排放標準或欲擴展經濟須提高排放量時，則可透過污染排放交易制度，與其他的污染排放者進行交易。
水質模式為發展總量管制的重要工具之一。然而，因為水質參數與輸入資料的不確定性，使得模擬結果具有不確定性。本研究將這些參數與資料的不確定性以隨機變數表示，利用可靠度方法分析河川水質濃度違反水質標準之風險，並且藉由可靠度反向方法推求特定風險要求下之允許污染排入量。本研究亦探討水污染排放交易機制，包括點源與點源、點源與非點源。在點源與點源交易上，本研究結合水質模式與最佳化模式評估河川水質狀況與集污區允許污染排入量，並決定交易比與交易價格。而建立之最佳化模式，除了水質標準之限制，更增加集污區污染排放者本身的限制條件，由於該結構符合大系統規劃問題的特殊結構，因此將以此理論求解數理規劃模式。而點源與非點源交易，因為非點源污染隨機性且不易控制的特點，本研究利用隨機規劃(Stochastic Programming)建立點源與非點源污染排放交易模式分析交易比、交易平衡的最佳削減分配量、節省之總成本等。上述方法與模式將會藉由案例設計來說明。

關鍵字

永續發展 ； 總量管制 ； 不確定性 ； 風險/可靠度分析 ； 污染排放交易 ； 隨機規劃

並列摘要

Sustainable water quality management requires total mass control in pollutant discharge, which aims to meet the needs of economic and social development while considering the principles of not exceeding carrying capacity and equity among generations. The goal of total mass control is to allocate the pollutant load and to control pollutant discharge to satisfy water quality standards based on the water vision and an affordable risk. When some polluters are unable to reduce the pollution to meet the allowable emission or intend to expand economical benefits which will produce more pollutants, they can trade with others according to the effluent trading system.
Water quality simulation model is an important tool for the development of total mass control. However, the simulation results are uncertain due to the uncertainty of parameters and data. This study use a method based on the reliability method to assess the risk of violating the water quality standard by representing parameters and data as random variables. And it also estimates the allowable pollutant discharges for a target risk through the inverse reliability method. The mechanism of effluent trading is also discussed in this study, including point-point source trading and point-nonpoint source trading. In the point-point source trading, this study integrates a water quality simulation model with an optimization model to assess river water quality and allowable pollutant discharges. The constraints of the water quality standard and individual polluter would be considered in the optimization model, which is solved via the large-scale system optimization theory. The trading ratio and transaction price of point-point source trading are also evaluated. In point-nonpoint source trading, stochastic programming is used to establish point-nonpoint source trading model because the nonpoint source emission are stochastic and difficult to control. Trading ratio, optimal abatement allocation under trading equilibrium, and total cost saving of point-nonpoint source trading are evaluated. Cases would be designed to explain the above methodologies and model.

並列關鍵字

Sustainable Development ； Total Mass Control ； Uncertainty ； Risk/Reliability Analysis ； Effluent Trading ； Stochastic Programming

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