永續性河川水質管理系統之發展

The Development of Sustainable Water Quality Management System

陳韻如(YUN JU CHEN)

指導教授 ： 童慶斌

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/生物環境系統工程學研究所/博士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2006.02402

摘要

為了符合永續發展，流域水質管理制度應考量累積性衝擊不可超過環境承載力以及世代公平性之原則。本研究依據此原則建立永續性河川水質總量管制方法。
此方法架構是先建立永續發展願景與水質目標，進而提出總量管理策略，再藉由水質模式之建立並與最佳化模式結合，評估流域內允許最大BOD污染排放量。最後再以各集污區之面積，推求各區域內之單位面積污染負荷，以此作為河川水質管理之審查依據，以及政策環評與計畫環評相互承接的準則，簡化計畫環評之審查過程。對於落實永續性總量管制方法於現行環評制度可能遭遇之困難與解決方案，研究中研擬一決策流程說明現有開發案與新開發案加入的管理方式，以提供決策者參考。本研究於水質模式之檢定與驗證的評估過程，結合模擬退火演算法，以優選最佳的水質參數組合，進而以此參數推求水質承載力（最大涵容能力）。
研究中並進一步根據氣候變遷之預設情境，應用GWLF流量模式模擬流量可能之衝擊，依據流量衝擊之結果進而由水質模式評估河川允許污染排放量與單位面積負荷可能之影響，以提供決策者提出因應氣候變遷衝擊水質管理策略之參考。本研究並將此永續性河川水質總量管制架構與方法，應用於頭前溪流域作為研究案例說明。

關鍵字

永續性總量管制 ； 累積性衝擊 ； 單位面積負荷 ； 模擬退火法 ； 氣候變遷

並列摘要

In order to achieve sustainable development, the principles of cumulative impacts not exceeding environmental carrying capacity and equality among generations should be considered in watershed water quality management. Based on these two principles, this study establishes sustainable total mass control method in water quality.
This study integrates a water quality simulation model with an optimization model to assess the allowable maximum BOD pollutant discharges. And then, the unit area pollutant load of each subwatershed could be estimated from the allowable BOD pollutant. The unit area pollutant load can be a criterion for watershed water quality management and can be used to link strategic environmental assessment and environmental impact assessment, which can simplify the inspection process of project environmental impact assessment. The possible difficulties and solutions to apply the unit area pollutant load in practice are also addressed in this study. To develop sustainable total mass control method, the parameters of water quality simulation model need to be determined. Thus, simulated annealing algorithm is applied to identify parameters.
The climate change impacts are also assessed. First, the GWLF model is used to simulate the impacts on streamflows based on several climate scenarios derived from GCMs’ predictions. Then, the water quality model and an optimization model with possible changes of streamflows are further applied to evaluate the climate change impacts on water quality and unit area pollutant load, which can provide valuable references for decision makers to develop sustainable water quality management strategies. The TouChen River was taken as a case study to explain the framework and procedures of developing the total mass control method of sustainable water quality.

並列關鍵字

Sustainable total mass control method ； Cumulative impact ； Unit area pollutant load ； Simulated annealing algorithm ； Climate change

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