- 學位論文
總體經濟變數對消費者行為之影響性-以Barnesandnoble.com為例
The Effect of Macro-Economic to Customer Behavior-An Example of Barnesandnoble.com
摘要
如何瞭解顧客之異質性與動態性，並預測顧客未來之消費行為，一直是行銷人員所面對最重要的課題。在現今資訊系統發達之下，行銷人員開始使用更為精確且嚴謹的方式去了解消費者的能力，透過資料庫行銷層層歸出消費者消費之異質性與動態性，然而卻鮮少探討消費者本身行為變化的原因為何：其能否透過事件研究來解釋，抑或是消費行為可能受到環境影響而變化。 為探求消費行為是否會受整體經濟情況所影響，本研究以ComScore 資料庫中之邦諾(Barnes& Noble) 網路書店為例，將該網站在2006 及2007 年間有消費記錄之消費者作為研究基礎，並以月為單位觀察各月消費者網路搜尋行為與網路購買行為之相關性。接著透過層級貝式估計模式(Hierarchical Bayesian Model)探討各期間消費行為與總體經濟是否存在顯著影響。 研究發現，邦諾(Barnes& Noble) 網路書店整體消費者之行為模式會隨著時間變化而有不同，且受外在經濟環境影響下，整體消費者之消費行為將呈現動態性的調整。因此，本研究在最後並針對研究發現為邦諾(Barnes& Noble) 網路書店擬訂一適宜且有效之行銷策略，並且在最後提出本研究在進行時所遇到的限制及未來可以進一步研究的方向。
並列摘要
How to realize the customers’ heterogeneous and dynamic behavior and predict what happened in the future is very import to marketers. Nowadays under the advance of information systems, marketers use more precisely and prudent techniques such as database to analysis customers action. However, they rarely consider what is momentum to drive customer’ behavior change, many questions about that “Can we use event research to explain the change?”, or “Can we use economic situation to testify that? In order to find the effect of macro-economic to customer behavior, we use ComScore database in the period of 2006 to 2007 and take Barnesandnoble.com for example. We divided the all period into 24 units and observe the correlation between customers’searching behavior and purchasing behavior base. Later we implement the Hierarchical Bayesian Model to research if macro-economic would have an effect on customer behavior’s shift. We find that Barnesandnoble’s customers’ behavior will change by time and interact with macro-economic. We thus set up suitable and effective marketing strategies and later we also bring up the circumstance and the research goal in the future.