總體經濟學指標對於蒙古股票市場報酬的影響

Macroeconomic impact on Mongolian stock market return

百吉(Gankhuyag Bayanmunkh)

指導教授 ： 張森林

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/財務金融學研究所/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201600939

摘要

在前幾年，蒙古國為世界成長速度最快的經濟體之一。自2008年，蒙古國便成為國際大投資者之主要目標。蒙古國經濟於2008至2012年間迅速發展，然因政治變革與國際物價下跌之影響而下滑。我為此情況定論為蒙古國的政治危機。
本研究主要探討蒙古國經濟轉變前後之經濟和股市。此外，此論文將解析蒙古國於2008至2015年間的總體經濟變數如，通膨率、匯率、外國直接投資、出口總值、銅價、煤價與股市報酬走勢的影響。
研究結果發現蒙古股市報酬與銅價、出口總值正相關，而與通膨率、匯率、外國直接投資、煤價負相關。因此，銅價與出口總值顯著影響了股市報酬，而其餘四項變量與股市報酬並無顯著關係。

關鍵字

蒙古 ； 經濟 ； 政治危機 ； 股市 ； 總體經濟變數

並列摘要

Mongolia is one of the fastest growing economy in the world in last few years. Starting from 2008, country itself started to be in main target of international big investors. Then Mongolian economy was booming since 2008 to 2012 and somehow started to decline after political changes and international commodity price decline. I define this situation as political crisis in Mongolia.
This thesis focuses mainly on Mongolia’s economy and stock market before and after the Mongolian economy transition. In addition, this thesis identifies the relationship between macroeconomic variables such as inflation rate, exchange rate, foreign direct investment, export value, copper price, coal price and stock market return within the time frame of political crisis 2008 to 20015.
Result showed that Mongolian stock market return had a positive correlation with copper price, export value and a negative relationship with inflation rate, exchange rate, foreign direct investment and coal price. Therefore, copper price and export value had significant impact on the stock return, whereas the linkage between other four variables and stock market return were not significant.

並列關鍵字

Mongolia ； economy ； political crisis ； stock market ； macroeconomic variables

參考文獻

[25] Financial Regulation Commission of Mongolia, “Annual Report of 2008 to 2015”.

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