朴槿惠於2012年當選為韓國第一位女性總統,經由標準差圖分析後發現,朴槿惠的得票存在著集中於某一地域的現象,而此現象與韓國一直存在的地域主義政治有著極高的關聯。因此本研究試圖利用空間分析研究方法進行韓國2012年總統選舉朴槿惠得票率的分析,以基礎自治團體為地理分析單位,利用韓國中央選舉委員會以及韓國統計門戶所釋出的資料,試圖瞭解朴槿惠的得票在空間上是如何分布的,以及影響朴槿惠得票的因素為何,並進一步推斷韓國的地域政治情況。 研究結果指出,經由空間迴歸模型顯示朴槿惠得票率主要受到粗出生率、天主教人口比與不同地域的變數影響,但同時證實了保守勢力與女性獨立人口較多的地區對朴槿惠的得票率並無明顯的正向影響。此外,亦可得知地域的影響仍然占朴槿惠得票率一個重要的因素,而此變數是無法用任何社會經濟指標等相關的自變數所取代的,代表選民並非有著相同的社會地位或是類似的背景而才有著共同的投票行為,純粹是因為該地出生而形成了投票的鄰近效應。
Park Geun-hye, was elected to be the first female president of Korea in 2012. The voting rate of Park Geun-hye showed a centralized phenomenon in a region after analyzing the standard deviation graph. Such phenomenon was highly related to the continuing of political regionalism in Korea. Thus, this research analyzes the voting rate of Park Geun-hye in the 2012 presidential election by exploiting the spatial analysis method. Based on the elementary local self-government as analytical unit together with the data released by National Election Commission of Korea and Statistics Korea, this research attempt to understand the distribution of spatial voting rate as well as factors affecting the voting rate for Park Geun-hye. Hence, concluding the situation of regionalism in Korea. Research found, through spatial regression model, the main factors affecting the voting rate for Park Geun-hye were due to crude birth rate, population of Catholicism and other regional variable. Meanwhile, there is no direct correlation between the voting rate for Park Geun-hye in regions with more conservative and feminism population. However, regional affect is still a vital factor in Park Geun-hye’s voting rate. Such variable cannot be replaced by any socio-economic background or any other related independent variable. This demonstrates that the collective voting behaviors of voters do not necessarily have similar social-economic status or background; rather, it is due to birth in the region that drove the neighborhood effect.