運價指數趨勢對於貿易及航商營利之影響

貨櫃定期航運是完全競爭的行業，也因為極度競爭，運價變動起伏不定且幅度巨大，對於國際貿易及航商營利的前景充滿不確定性。本研究以上海航運交易所綜合運價指數(SCFI)做為觀察值，從文獻及專家訪談中，尋找其可能的影響因子，再以迴歸分析的方法來了解，這些影響因子與綜合運價指數(SCFI)的關聯性，最後再以顯著的影響因子，來推估運價指數未來趨勢的區間預測。以進出口貿易商、廠商來說，有了未來運價趨勢的預測區間，就可以制定其與貨櫃航商的運價談判策略，在合理的運費成本預算下，與運輸業者合理洽商獲得航運艙位的保障，可以順利的完成貿易流程獲得利潤。以貨櫃航商來說，有了未來運價趨勢的預測區間，就可以制定其運價策略，以及來年的航線佈局及拓展計畫，對於航商營利也將有正面效果。

關鍵字

SCFI運價綜合指數；海運市場；迴歸分析

並列摘要

Container liner shipping industry is in a fully competitive market, because of the extremely competitive situation, ocean freight is always volatile enormously, and too much uncertainty of this situation in front, it does also affect international trading and shipping companies’ revenue and profit. In this paper, we’re using Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) as an object of observation, searching the possible impact factors from other papers as well as from experts’ interviews. And then, the regression analysis is used to understand the correlation between these impact factors and SCFI freight index. Finally, this paper is using the significant impact factors to estimate the trend and interval of SCFI in coming near future. By this forecast, shippers and traders can negotiate the freight with shipping lines reasonably. And strategically, shippers and traders can secure shipping space service with reasonable cost under their budget plan to make profit for their business. On the other hand, carriers can also set up their pricing policy as well as their future service deployment plan by this forecast. There will be positive effect to shipping lines, too.