散裝海運市場運價決定機制及影響因素分析

Freight Rate Determination Mechanism in Dry-Bulk Shipping Market

溫珮伶(Pei-Ling Wen)

指導教授 ： 林師模

中原大學/商學院/國際貿易研究所/碩士(2005年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200500667

摘要

在全球景氣復甦的氛圍下，自2002年起，國際散裝海運運價終於揮別了七年的低運價時代，而各界對海運市場之重視也與日俱增，對海運業的興趣及信心亦隨之提高。然而，近年海運價格的不確定性大大地增加了相關業者的營運風險，因此，若能瞭解、掌握運價之決定機制及各影響因素之影響途徑，將能對市場參與者的經營決策提供重要的參考資訊，有效降低其營運的風險。
本研究主要即在探討散裝海運市場運價的決定機制及影響因素。首先，我們就散裝海運市場運價決定機制及影響因素作一敘述性的探討，其中，特別針對海運市場的分類、特性、供給面、及需求面一一討論，期使對海運市場之運價決定機制及影響因素有一基本的瞭解。隨後，本研究進行海運價格與相關影響因素間的交互影響效果實證分析，其中也一併分析海運價格與其他影響海運價格的重要因素(如：燃煤價格、原油價格、鋼鐵價格)之間的交互影響，期能對海運市場之價格波動有較為完整的瞭解。在實證作法上，本研究是先以VAR(p)模型估計變數間的長期關係，而當各組變數存在異質變異現象時，則進一步結合多變量GARCH模型探討。實證結果發現，油價、煤價及鋼價等原物料價格皆會影響到海運市場(BPI，BCI)的價格，證明了原物料價格上漲時，運價會隨之揚升，也意謂原物料的需求會推升海運的需求量。

關鍵字

VAR模型 ； 運價 ； 多變量GARCH模型 ； 裝散海運

並列摘要

Following the global economic recovery, the dry-bulk shipping market in 2002 finally says good-bye to a seven-year era of low freight rates. Consequently, all walks of life pay more and more attention to the shipping market, and raise greater interest and confidence with the industry than ever before. However, shipping industry nowadays still faces relatively high risks, coming mainly from the volatile freight rates. As such, knowing and grasping effectively the determination mechanism and the factors attributable to the volatility of freight rates will greatly enhance the profitability of the market participants.
This study explores in depth the determination mechanism and the factors attributable to the volatility of freight rates. Descriptive discussions about the determination mechanism and influencing factor of freight rates in dry-bulk shipping market, which focus specifically on the classification, the characteristics, and the supply-demand relationships of the market, are conducted first. Afterwards, this study investigates and analyzes quantitatively the interactions among freight rates and those factors contributing to the volatility of freight rates, such as coal prices, crude oil prices, and steel prices. Initially, long-term relationships among the variables are estimated by a VAR(p) model, when heteroskedasticity phenomenon is found in variables, a multivariate GARCH model is specified to take into account the underlying movements between variables of interest. The empirical results show that freight rates are significantly affected by the prices of raw materials, indicating that the increase in the demand for raw materials has pushed the demand for dry-bulk shipping up over the past several years.

並列關鍵字

VAR model ； multivariate GARCH model ； freight rate ； Dry-bulk shipping

參考文獻

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陳永順 (2005b)，「國際散裝乾貨船市場分析」，船舶與海運通訊，第十八期，頁12-29。

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