新冠肺炎對觀光服務相關產業衝擊與應對 ~ 以G公司為例

馬克吐溫的名句「歷史不會重演但會押韻」，意思是社會史上曾發生過的事情，總有著百變不離其宗的相似性。黑天鵝事件中20世紀有經濟大蕭條與兩次世界大戰。21世紀則有美中貿易戰，新冠肺炎疫情與俄烏戰爭，而貿易戰與疫情侵襲世界經濟，改變了人類的生活次序，也帶動著一個新紀元和新經濟的產生。新冠肺炎因為疫情擴散造成百萬人死亡，各國政府在無抵抗能力下採取封城，其影響則是全球供應鏈區域化成形。川普總統主導的中美貿易戰，除大量印鈔與灑鈔於民間及興建公共工程等救經濟措施，大量現金流入股市使指數上升到歷史新高，全球瀰漫經濟繁榮的假象。因國境關閉導致生意空轉的觀光相關產業、交通運輸業、零售業等泛服務業，因為疫情使產業面臨大量裁員及倒閉的經濟反差。或許有些人會覺得台灣注重工業製造發展是正確的?因為它的經濟規模大可為台灣帶進大量外匯。如今台灣發展工業的時空背景已經不一樣了。如今的世界工廠中國，早在中美貿易戰前就理解到工業發展已到瓶頸，所以著手發展服務業。許多海外大型基金公司會購買台灣的台積電。中國則是購買騰訊、美團、滴滴打車等新創公司，這些公司都是服務業的標竿而非製造業。台灣雖然比中國更早發展服務業，但是卻不如諸國發展服務業的優勢，因為台灣人口老化與少子化，服務業發展面臨嚴重缺工缺人才的窘境，疫情關閉國境也阻礙觀光產業的發展，對觀光產業有興趣的人才無法坐吃山空就轉進其他產業，更糟的是疫情不確定性消滅了人才對觀光遠景的期待。即使國境開放除了缺工外，人力的薪資成本鐵定上升，對服務業的衝擊仍大，離寒冬散去尚遠。

關鍵字

新冠肺炎；疫情；服務業；缺工；觀光產業

並列摘要

Mark Twain’s famous sentence 〝History does not repeat itself but rhymes〞, means that what has happened in the history of human society always has a variety of similarities. In the 20th century, there were the great depression and twice the World Wars in the black swan event. In the 21st century, there are the US-China Trade War, the COVID-19 epidemic and Russian-Ukrainian War. The Trade War and the epidemic have invaded the world economy, changed the order of human life, and led to the emergence of a new era and new economy. The COVID-19 as caused millions of deaths due to the spread of the epidemic. Governments of various countries have adopted closures when they are unable to resist, and the impact is the regionalization of the global supply chain. In the Sin-Us Trade War led by President Trump, in addition to a large number of money printing and spending on the private sector and the construction of public works and other measures to save the economy, a large amount of cash inflows into the stock illusion of economic prosperity permeated the world. Pan-service as tourism-related industries, transportation, and border closures, are facing a large number of layoffs and closures due to the epidemic. Some people may think that Taiwan is right to focus on the development of industrial manufacturing. Because of its large economy, it can bring a lot of foreign exchange to Taiwan. Today, the time and space background of Taiwan’s industrial development is different. Today, China the world’s factory, understood that its industrial development had reached a bottleneck long before the Sino-US Trade War, so is started to develop the service industry. Many large overseas fund companies will buy Taiwan’s TSMC, while China buy new startups such as Tencent, Meituan, and Didi Taxi, which are benchmarks in the service industry rather than manufacturing. Although Taiean developed the service industry earlier than China, due to the aging population and low birth rate in Taiwan, but China is not. The developemet of the service industry in Taiwan is faced lacking of talents. The closure of the border due to the epidemic also hinders the development of the tourism industry. Talents who are interested in the related industry cannot sit back and relax. Just switch to other industries, and what’s worse is that the uncertainty of the epidemic has wiped out talen’s expectations for tourism prospects. Even if the border is opened, in addition to the lack of manpower, the cost of manpower wages will definitely rise, and the impat on the service industry will still be great, and it is still far from expecting cold winter gone away.