This thesis considers several variables whick are picked from upstream , downstream , cement industry and macroeconimics dimension to predict the default rate of Taiwan cement industry . In chapter 3 , I’ll examine the correlation between dependent and independent variables by using linear regression model and piecewise regression model. The result reveals that cement quantity imported divided by total cement quantity demanded , cement firms’ gross margin , construction firms’ gross margin , population increasing rate , house price index , and approbation of the building floor area have significant relevance with default rate of Taiwan Cement industry. After conducting out-sample testing , compare with trational prediction model, it shows that prediction error is tiny .Therefore , default rate prediction model which is built by account-based, industrial , and macroeconomics variables is beneficial to enhance prediction efficiency.