我國水泥需求預測之評析

Study on Forecasting of the Cement Demand in Taiwan

黃浩軒(Hao-Syuan Huang) ； 吳榮華(Jung-Hua Wu)

《臺灣鑛業》 71卷2期 (2019/06) Pp. 7-18

摘要

近年我國水泥未來需求議題備受關注（如：水泥工業政策環評），本文以人均水泥需求迴歸模型預測2017－2025年之水泥需求量及大理石礦石用量，並將前瞻基礎建設計畫及循環經濟納入考量。研究結果顯示，在前瞻基礎建設計畫下未來水泥需求量介於1,140～1,455萬公噸之間，若納入因循環經濟衍生之水淬爐石替代水泥熟料量（每年約624萬公噸），則實質水泥需求量介於1,764～2,079萬公噸之間。本文亦模擬不同水泥外銷率對未來水泥自產量及大理石礦石用量之影響。

關鍵字

水泥需求預測 ； 政策環評 ； 循環經濟 ； 前瞻基礎建設計畫

並列摘要

In response to the growing concern about future demand of cement in Taiwan (e.g. policy environmental impact assessment of cement industry), this study formulated an effective model to forecast future demand of cement and marble ore during 2017 to 2025 taking the Forward-looking Infrastructure Development Program (FIDP) and circular economy into consideration. The results show that future demand of cement ranging from 11.40 to 14.55 million metric tons. Furthermore, considering the replacement of clinker by water-quenched slags (6.24 million metric tons / year) due to circular economy effect, the effective demand of cement will range from 17.64 to 20.79 million metric tons during 2017 to 2025. The future domestic production of cement and marble ore is simulated based on various scenarios (e.g. export ratio of cement).

並列關鍵字

cement demand forecasting ； policy environmental impact assessment ； Circular Economy ； Forward-Looking Infrastructure Development Program