「兩稅合一」制度對國內經濟與所得之事後影響評估

An Ex post Evaluation of Economic and Welfare Impacts of Enforcing the “Corporate Tax Integration " in Taiwan since 1998

蘇漢邦(Han-Pang Su)

指導教授 ： 徐世勳

共同指導教授 ： 楊子菡

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/農業經濟學研究所/博士(2005年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2005.00940

摘要

綜觀國內外以計量方法在「兩稅合一」稅制改革之研究，多屬事前之模擬評估，亦即在尚未實施兩稅合一的情境下，進行兩稅合一之衝擊模擬。然我國已於1998年實施兩稅合一制度，兩稅合一制度實施後其政策效果之良窳，實有必要進行事後的檢討與解析。
本研究旨在利用澳洲的ORANI-G模型為基礎，引入所得收支方程式，並擴充企業生產之資本結構及資本利得分配機制，建構出涵蓋投入產出關係、產業結構、所得收支及資本結構調整機制的動態可計算一般均衡模型(ROCNM-RD)。運用動態求解方法，更新我國所得收支及投入產出資料庫，並推估各項外在環境變數(技術及偏好等)，真實模擬出「兩稅合一」制度實施時的經濟現況。同時，模型中對產業的財務融通與股利發放決策存在CES之替代機制，致使企業籌資行為具有內生調節功能，因而更能貼切模擬出兩稅合一制度造成稅負改變後，企業資本決策調整軌跡。
研究結果發現：在考慮外在環境的相互影響之下，研究中允許企業資金的籌措可在不同的來源間做調節，亦可在各部門間自由流動，「兩稅合一」制度對於我國經濟面呈現正面的影響，造成國內總供給線及需求線同時右移，致使實質GDP成長了1.35%，其中又以供給面的效果較為顯著，因而使總合物價指物微幅地降了0.25%。實質GDP之份額以出口擴張(X)及實質投資(I)之所占比重最高，分別貢獻1.18%及1.01%之GDP成長。就社會福利而言，「兩稅合一」制度可達到Pareto的改善，若以所得五分位法觀察，則以所得階層三及所得階層四的成長最高，呈現倒U之結構性改變。

關鍵字

兩稅合一 ； 資本組成結構 ； 所得分配 ； 動態可計算一般均衡分析

並列摘要

Taking a board view of econometric researches on “Corporate Tax Integration”, Most of them are using the ex ante approach, that means those research simulated the impacts of Corporate Tax Integration before it put into practice. In Taiwan, However, we have enforced the Corporate Tax Integration since 1998, so it is necessary to have ex post examination and analysis of the effect.
The main model in this study(ROCNM-RD) is derived from the Australian ORANI-G model, wihich is a dynamic, multisectoral, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Taiwan’s economy, developed specifically to analyze the income revenue and expenditure equations. The most significant features that distinguish ROCNM-RD is that it includes input and output relations, industrial structures, income revenue and expenditure, and capital structure adjustment mechanism as well. On purpose of simulating the “Corporate Tax Integration” ex post impact, this study uses dynamically solving method to upgrade the database and estimate the relative parameters. In addition to trace the enterprises’ investment strategies under the tax reform, ROCNM-RD model employs the CES mechanism to deal with Retained Earnings and Dividends Payment Decisions, so comes the consequently endogenous corporation funds raising behavior.
In results we find that the “Corporate Tax Integration” has the positive impacts to our country, and makes the aggregate supply and demand curve shift to the right side when considering the external factor and in the long-term condition. It brings about 1.35% increment of real GDP, and especially affects the supply side, the aggregate price index decrease slightly about 0.25%. Export (X) and real investment (I) contribute 1.18% and 1.01% to the real GDP increase. In the case of social welfare, “Corporate Tax Integration” could improve the Pareto situation. As for the income level, the level III and IV would increase the most, showing the structural changes by the upside down word of “U”.

並列關鍵字

capital structural ； Dynamic General Equilibrium Model (ROCNM-RD) ； Tax Reform ； income distribution ； Corporate Tax Integration ； CGE

參考文獻

江莉莉(2002)，「兩稅合一與動態均衡下的所得分配」，《經濟論文叢刊》，30：2，p205-227。

楊子菡、蘇漢邦(2002)，「綠色租稅改革的租稅福利成本與結構效果」，《農業與經濟》第29期，p29-54。

Ballard, C., Fullerton, D., Shoven, J., and Whalley, J.(1985). “A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Evaluation”. Chicago：University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research

Barrett, S. (1990). “Pricing the Environment: The Economic and Environmental Consequences of a Carbon Tax”. Economic Outlook, February: 24-33.

------(1994a). “Climate Change Policy and International Trade”. Paper presented to the IPCC Workshop on Policy Instruments and their Impacts, Tsukuba, Japan, January 17-20.