兩岸房地產開發商獲利模式之比較

中文摘要每個國家的不動產市場是經濟發達的基礎指標，不動產的發達對國家經濟有著深遠的影響，進而影響全球經濟。例如美國次貸風暴，影響了全球資本市場和全球經濟，在在說明了房地產業是國民經濟的基礎、先導性的產業。目前，房地產投資佔中國GDP的比重接近10%，有些城市甚至把房地產當做地方政府的經濟命脈。從目前的情況來看，面對經濟建設和工業化、城市化對土地需求的不斷增長，再加上自古以來中國人有土斯有財的觀念，也加深了中國人對購買房地產無比的熱衷，將使得中國房地產的需求有增無減。由於中國大陸的經濟起步較晚，很多制度尚未建全，但是中國龐大的市場與充沛的勞動力，吸引著台商前仆後繼的前往大陸投資。根據最新的數據指出：2011年台灣對大陸的投資就超過143億美元，在在證明台灣對大陸市場的高度依賴。也因此，房市的熱化，究竟是市場真實需求的反應，抑或是泡沫化的發展，也是大家所關切的議題。掌握房地產市場週期性變化的因素，不僅有利於政府調控市場供需失衡，穩定房地產物價，也有利於房地產開發商作精準的決策考量。台灣房地產相關產業環境相對的成熟穩定，故我們將藉助台灣經驗探討大陸不動產發展，並且比較大陸有公開上市之四大不動產開發商：萬科、碧桂園、龍湖、SOHO，以及台灣的遠雄建設、宏泰建設、長虹建設、興富發建設，來作公開數據的分析比較。藉由回顧台灣與大陸不動產之相關研究文獻，找出影響房地產興衰的因素，並對於房地產開發商之策略提供簡略的看法。

關鍵字

房地產市場；台灣房地產；大陸不動產發展趨勢；土地

並列摘要

ABSTRACT Real estate market is one of key industry in every country and it has a profound impact on the national economy. Subprime mortgage crisis has affected global capital markets, which once again demostrated that real estate industry is the foundation of the national economy. Currently, real estate investment accounts for 10% of China's GDP in 2011; some cities even heavily rely on real estate industry as an main source of the local government income. Based on current situation - demand from the public construction, industrialization, urbanization, growing land demand, especially Chinese traditional concept “land bring the wealth”, promotes the immense enthusiasm of Chinese people to invest in real estate, and keeps the demand of the real estate industry in a secular upward trend. Since the development in China property industry was started only in 20 years agao, most of its systems have not been completed yet. However, the huge market and abundant labor forces has attracted Taiwanese businessmen to invest in China and makes China property industry a attractive investment. According to the latest data from Taiwan government: in 2011, Taiwan investment in China was over 14.3 billion U.S. dollars. This data shows Taiwan economy is highly dependent on the Chinese market. As a result, whether the red-hot China real estate market is due to real demand or only another bubbles will be a critical question for those who are interested in China long-term outlook. Knowing the cyclical change factors of the real estate market can not only help government to modulate the market supply and demand and stabilize real estate prices but also helps real estate developers to make accurate decisions. Given that Taiwan real estate industry is more stable and has longer history compared to China’s, this thesis uses Taiwan experience to explore the trend of China real estate development. I also collect data of 8 real estate developers which are listed in Taiwan and China stock markets, including Vanke, Country Garden, SOHO, LongHu, Far Glory, Fergus, ChangHong and HighWealth Construction. I also review the related researches and identify the factors that affect the rise and fall of real estate market, and try to find a strategy for real estate developers.