民間參與公共建設投資案之財務風險探討-以台北市平價旅館BOT案為例

A study of financial risks on private participation in public construction projects-The case of a BOT hotel project in Taipei.

蔡榮根(Lung-Ken Tsai)

指導教授 ： 廖咸興

共同指導教授 ： 郭瑞祥

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/商學研究所/碩士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2006.01076

摘要

中文摘要
本研究探討BOT專案特許公司在不同資本結構下，可能面臨之財務風險。首先根據觀光局民國92年推動之台北市平價旅館BOT案招標文件，自行模擬BOT投資計劃，並評估其財務可行性及融資可行性，再以不同資金成本計算方式分析BOT專案特許公司在不同資本結構、不同經營情境下之投資效益及風險。研究結果發現，在不同資金成本計算方式下，評估NPV、MIRR等投資效益指標結果有很大之差異。針對BOT計劃及專案融資特性，建議採公債殖利率加風險溢酬法設定權益資金合理期望報酬率，並以相似評等公司債券殖利率計算不同負債比之負債成本，較能兼顧高負債比時可能之財務槓桿風險及破產成本；本研究另以權益現金流量表評估特許公司在不同負債比時之股東權益價值，發現以CAPM法估算權益資金成本，每股股東權益價值在高負債比及營運稍不如預期時將低於面額。因此建議政府宜針對不同BOT計劃之特性規定不同之負債上限，以防止道德風險；另建議政府如無法不管制客房房價或降低土地租金，仍不宜於台北市區精華地段推動以BOT方式興建平價旅館。

關鍵字

BOT ； 平價旅館 ； 財務風險 ； 資本結構 ； 資金成本

並列摘要

Summary
This thesis attempts to study the financial risks that a BOT project concession company may face under different capital structures.On the basis of the bid documents of a BOT hotel project provided by Tourism Bureau in 2003, the research simulated a BOT investment plan, and then evaluated its financial feasibility and bank-ability. Next, apply different cost-estimating methods of capital to analyze the BOT concession company’s benefits and risks under different operating scenarios and capital structures. According to the result of this research, the indexes of vestment feasibility such as NPV, MIRR etc. greatly differ from each other under various cost-estimating methods of captial.
Base on the characteristics of BOT project and project finance, it is recommended that the company adopts yields of government bonds and risk premiums to set expected return of equity capital, furthermore, uses YTM of likely rating corporate bonds to estimate costs of debts of concession company under different debt ratios. By proceeding so, the company is able to take into account of both financial leverage risks and financial distress costs when under the situation of high debt ratio.
Besides, applying the CAMP method, the research evaluated the value of stockholders’ equity of concession company under different debt ratios by computing a statement of equity cash flow, and found that the value of a stockholders’ equity to each stock certificate is less then par value when poor operation and high debt ratio occur.
In conclusion, it is suggested to define different upper limits for debts of concession company base on the characteristics of different BOT project in order to prevent moral hazards. The research also advises against the government impelling construction of hotels by BOT in central city unless the land rent is reduced and the price of hotel rooms are not regulated by the government.

並列關鍵字

BOT ； Hotel ； Financial Risks ； Capital structure ； cost of capital

參考文獻

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