越南營建專案之經濟，政治，管理與法律風險之風險管理架構

Risk Management Framework for Economic, Political, Managerial, and Legal Risks of construction projects in Vietnam

阮光龍(Quang-Long NGUYEN)

指導教授 ： 陳柏翰

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.02043

摘要

隨著經濟國家的發展，建設業也有很大的改變因為高樓大廈，新工業園，大橋，高速公路，水電站項目等等慢慢地在越南出現。新技術，科學應用的更新速度跟不上建設業的迅猛增長速度會帶來不可預料的風險在建設過程中，施工的過程直到完成。除此之外，風險管理在越南的建設業仍然被忽視導致建設的錯誤，勞動事故等等發生頻繁。風險在經濟和社會發展是普遍，不可避免的。建設項目的開始與執行都是在一個複雜的經濟與社會環境，被天氣影響，所以帶來很多不可預料的因素和風險。因此，風險管理是不可忽視的並必須與項目管理融合在一起。在越南執行建設項目而言，預測，識別和找解決方案將會減少建築項目的風險，協助項目管理專家預料，設成模式，有計劃來控制與有效地處理。有效的模式來應對多層次的風險不僅可以保證最高質量的和按時完成工作，同時也節省費用，創造利潤。因為有這樣實際的意義，所以執行此研究：識別獨特的或者關鍵的風險分成4個組(經濟，政治，法律與管理); 對於每一種風險進行評估，建議緩和方法；建議在越南建設項目的風險管理框架。調查問卷包括二十二個風險因素，分成四個組，實施適當的緩和方法。
一份問卷包括找到的22個風險然後分成4個組相當於研究目的，應用減輕方法,執行次研究從2010年12月至2011年3月。自由回答的問卷調查發到86個人在不同越南的建設公司，包括面試。然而，只有五十八份問卷是合格，有些被調查者不填問卷。回答率是67%是對於這次研究有好的效果。收集資料之後，因素分析，在SPSS軟件進行多變回歸分析，這個方法是合適此研究目的之資料分析。六個新因素從因素分析方法抽出來代表著初始的一套可變因素，引進多變回歸分析方法來評價影響水平於項目根據找到的回歸模型。最後，因素的順序，風險的影響模型，(Alien Eyes' 模型) ，減輕方法的實行模型提建議風險管理框架給越南的建築項目。

關鍵字

風險管理框架 ； 建設的項目 ； 確定風險 ； 緩解措施 ； 越南

並列摘要

Along with the development of an economical country, the construction’s industry has changed drastically because of the high buildings; the new industrial parks; the bridges with the larger spans; the highways; the hydroelectric projects, etc. are gradually appearing all over Vietnam. The update on the modern technologies, scientific applications which do not catch the rapid growth of the construction industry up have brought about unforeseen risks during all the construction activities from the project’s implementation, execution of the work to the completion and acceptance of the project. In addition, the risk management in Vietnam’s construction industry now may be underestimated leading into some mistakes in construction’s period, unfortunate labor accidents that still happen every year.
Next, risk is common and unavoidable in all natural aspects of an economy and a society. Construction projects are started, executed in a complex environment of dynamic socioeconomic, and is influenced much by the weather resulting in the circumstances of high uncertainty and risk. Thus, the management of risk is an activity that cannot be ignored and must be associated with all activities of project management. Forecasting, identifying and finding solutions to minimize risks in construction’s projects will assist professional project management in anticipating, building a model, having a plan to control and deal with risks effectively when carrying out a construction contract in Vietnam. An efficient model to deal with multi-faceted risks will not only ensure completed work with the best quality and on schedule but also help executing project units to save the expense, make the profit. Due to these practical meanings, this research was implemented: to identify the unique or critical risks into 04 major groups (Economy, Politic, Law and Management); to evaluate, suggest the mitigating measure for each identified risks; to propose a risk management framework in Vietnam’s construction projects. A questionnaire survey, which consists of twenty-two risks that were found and divided into four groups appropriate to research’s objectives together with their corresponding mitigating measures, is conducted from December, 2010 to March, 2011. This questionnaire survey with the open-ended questions was sent 86 suitable people in many construction firms in Vietnam by several means, including face-to-face interviews. However, only fifty-eight are the proper responses, and the replied rate is only 67% which is evaluated a good result for this research. After collecting the data, Factor analysis and Multiple-regression technique in SPSS software were considered appropriate to these study’s objectives in analyzing data. Six new factors extracted from the factor analysis were representative of a set of original variables, and were inserted into the multiple regression technique for considering in terms of the level of influence on the project depending on a regression model found. At last, the hierarchical level of factors, the risk’s influence matrix (Alien Eyes’ model), and the matrix of implementation of mitigation measures were discovered to propose a risk management framework for Vietnam’s construction projects.

並列關鍵字

risk management framework ； construction’s projects ； identified risk ； mitigation measures ； Vietnam

參考文獻

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