氣候調適與聯合國永續發展目標決策整合框架：以臺灣水資源永續發展目標為例

Integrated Decision Framework on Climate Adaptation and UN SDGs: SDG 6 in Taiwan

林孟慧(Meng-Hui Lin)

指導教授 ： 童慶斌

國立臺灣大學/理學院/氣候變遷與永續發展國際學位學程/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201904036

摘要

隨著工業革命以降的人類經濟發展，人為影響氣候變遷的程度逐漸增加，氣候變遷造成的全球平均升溫使得不同面向氣候風險也隨之增加，各種極端天氣的發生讓人類在環境、經濟、社會等三大永續發展面向面臨許多挑戰。因此希望藉由氣候調適行動讓人類可以為氣候變遷帶來的挑戰做足準備，藉以降低氣候風險，邁向永續發展。2015年聯合國通過的《巴黎協議》及《2030年議程》更是強調了氣候變遷及永續發展議題對現在人類的重要性，並須加速行動。
然而，在行動之前需要經歷完整的評估過程，了解議題因子間的互動關係，得以確保決策的合理性。因此本研究提出氣候調適及《2030年議程》提出的17項永續發展目標的決策整合框架，試圖發展得以評估跨領域、跨部門、不同國情、多元調適方案的評估方法與工具，確保氣候調適（Adapt-）不與永續發展目標（SDGs）偏離，而成「AdaptSDGs」。
AdaptSDGs的組成包含四個納入SDGs的氣候調適評估步驟（界定問題與設定目標、評估與分析現況風險、評估與分析未來風險、界定與評估調適選項）及四個輔助工具（氣候風險模板、研究方法樹狀圖、關鍵子目標互動系統、風險因子互動系統）所成的工具組，建構系統性科學分析方法與流程，使氣候調適及永續發展目標的決策具有科學支持。
本研究以臺灣對應SDG 6的水資源領域中的關鍵議題——「水資源供需平衡」的氣候調適評估進行AdaptSDGs的決策過程演示，以氣候風險模板分析關鍵議題的風險因子；利用研究方法樹狀圖決定以「專家問卷法」來進行臺灣的SDG 6子目標間的互動關係研究，問卷產出用於建立關鍵議題子目標互動系統；系統動力工具Vensim所建立的關鍵議題子目標互動系統，用來評估了解子目標間的權衡、協同、衝突等互動關係，幫助降低執行方案可能產生的子目標間衝突，增進氣候調適對永續發展之助益；同樣利用Vensim建構的風險因子互動系統則是幫助評估關鍵議題的氣候風險對SDGs指標表現的影響，藉此將氣候變遷因素加進國家SDGs的2030年目標訂定之中，確保目標訂定的合理性。
評估臺灣分區水資源調適方案於關鍵子目標「6.4：提高用水效率，確保可持續取用和供應淡水」的達標能力，對「6.1：普遍獲得安全飲用水」、「6.2：人人享有適當和公平的衛生條件」、「6.5：在各級進行水資源綜合管理」、「6.b：支持和加強地方社區參與改進水和環境衛生管理」、「1.a：為發展中國家提供充足可消除一切貧困的執行相關計畫和政策」、「11.1：人人獲得負擔得起的住房和基本服務」產生較大程度的正向影響，但造成「8.2：發展高附加值和勞動密集型行業，提升經濟生產力」的負向發展。
本研究提出AdaptSDGs作為氣候調適與永續發展目標的決策整合框架，雖工具建構上有不盡人意之處，但在案例研究後，已掌握可改善之處，期盼未來持續改善，協助完成氣候調適及SDGs決策的科學分析。

關鍵字

AdaptSDGs ； 氣候變遷決策 ； 系統動力模式 ； 水資源管理

並列摘要

After the industrial revolution, human's economic development is growing with a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions. The human influence on climate change cause different kinds of climate risks increasing, and here come much more challenges about sustainable development than ever, while various extreme weather events are happening. Therefore, climate adaptation makes people to prepare as enough as possible for the impact of climate change and to reduce the risk to sustainable development. It also emphasized the importance of climate change and sustainable development issues to human, and people have to accelerate the climate actions in The Paris Agreement and 2030 Agenda in 2015.
However, it needs complete accessing progress tp know the interaction between the factors of issues to make sure the relationship of decision-making. Thereby, this study provides an integrated decision-making framework, AdaptSDGs, for climate adaptation and 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) from 2030 Agenda. Moreover, AdaptSDGs aims to develop the accessing methods and tools for interdisciplinary, interdepartmental, diversified adaptation plans with its national conditions to ensure the adaptation plans would not lead to deviation from sustainable development.AdaptSDGs includes four climate adaptation accessing steps with the approach of SDGs (identifying problems and goals, assessing current climate risk, assessing future climate risk, identifying adaptation options) and a tool kit with four supporting tools (climate risk templates, research method tree, key targets interaction system, and risk factor interaction system) to build up systematic scientific analysis methods and processes for the scientific supports on the decision-making of climate adaptation and SDGs.
This study takes Water supply and demand balance, the critical issue of SDG 6 in Taiwan to demonstrate how to do climate adaptation assessments with AdaptSDGs — deconstructing climate risk factors of the critical issue with climate risk template; research method tree guides to research the interaction of SDG 6 in Taiwan by "expert questionnaire"; the result of export questionnaire is used to build up the Key Targets Interaction System (KTIS) with system dynamic tool, Vensim; Key Targets Interaction System (KTIS) helps to set up to address the trade-offs and synergies between SDG targets so as to reduce the conflicts between SDG targets from climate adaptation plans and to increase the benefits of climate adaptation to sustainable development; risk Factor Interaction System (RFIS) aims to assess the impact of climate risk on the performance of SDGs of critical issues, thereby adding climate change factors to the 2030 target of national SDGs to ensure the rationality of target setting with Vensim.
Assessing the compliance of the Taiwan's regional water resources adaptation program with key sub-targets "6.4: Improving water efficiency, ensuring sustainable access and supply of fresh water", "6.1: Universal access to safe drinking water", "6.2: Appropriate for everyone and Fair sanitary conditions", "6.5: Integrated water resources management at all levels", "6.b: Support and strengthen local community participation in improving water and sanitation management", "1.a: Providing sufficient capacity for developing countries "Executing related plans and policies for all poverty", "11.1: Access to affordable housing and basic services for all" has a significant positive impact, but results in "8.2: Developing high value-added and labor-intensive industries To promote the negative development of economic productivity.
This study proposes AdaptSDGs as a decision-making integration framework for climate adaptation and sustainable development goals. Although there are some unsatisfactory tools in the construction of the tool, after the case study, we can grasp the improvement, and hope for continuous improvement in the future to help complete the climate — scientific analysis of adaptation and SDGs decision making.

並列關鍵字

AdaptSDGs ； climate change decision-making ； system dynamic model ； water resource management

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