臺灣水-能源-糧食之產業關聯分析與風險評估

Input-Output Analysis of Taiwan’s Water-Energy-Food Risk

姚竺均(Chu-Chun Yao)

指導教授 ： 游景雲

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/碩士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202102523

摘要

隨著全球科技與經濟的快速發展，在自然資源有限的情況下，全球人民對於「永續發展」的意識抬高，聯合國於2015年提出了永續發展目標(sustainable development goals, SDGs)，引起世界各國重視人類生存最基本的要素為水與糧食，而自然資源有效利用才能滿足人類需求，因此，國際間陸續對水-能源-糧食關聯(water-energy-food nexus, WEF Nexus)提出相關的研究。
在同一個經濟體內，水-能源-糧食間的關聯性是密不可分的，將其分為三個部門運作，若其中一個部門變動，往往會對另一個部門或兩個部門產生影響，如能源不足，會影響水及糧食安全，從國家經濟規劃勢必對水-能源-糧食等三個部門之間的關聯性加以探討、預測分析，以取得各部門均衡發展並產生最大效益。
本研究是以臺灣的產業關聯表為數據資料，目標是提出一種新的IO(input-output)表預測方法，以現有的歷史IO表作為基礎，基於廣義線性模型(generalized linear model, GLM)的概念，並考慮現有的限制條件與估計誤差的修正方法，透過新的預測方法對未來的投入產出表進行預測，分析產業之間的關聯，觀察不同年份之間的關聯變動，檢測分析產業的發展方向，及評估產業對於自然資源的需求之相關性。
在廣義線性模型中採用指數分佈、高斯(常態)分佈、反高斯分佈、伽瑪分佈以及最佳適配分佈等，進行數據演算分析及比較其適用性，結果發現由指數分佈，伽瑪分佈，以及最佳適配分佈所推估的數據與實際數據偏差值較小，亦即其推估效果較好；而在水、能源和糧食三個部門中，對於糧食部門的推估效果為最佳。
將來，若政府組織架構和交易運作體系能更加周延與健全，交易數據資料平台較完整的環境，數據取得較齊全，才可降低預測風險及順利驗證，則本研究所開發的評估方法就將更具實用性，得以為政府在制定因應對策時提供一些有用的資訊。

關鍵字

永續發展目標 ； 水-能源-糧食關聯 ； 投入產出分析 ； 廣義線性模型 ； 風險

並列摘要

With the rapid development of global technology and economy, under the condition of limited natural resources, people around the world have a higher awareness of "sustainable development". The United Nations put forward the sustainable development goals (SDGs) in 2015, causing countries around the world to attach importance to mankind. The most basic elements of survival are water and food, and the effective use of natural resources can meet human needs. Therefore, international studies on the water-energy-food nexus (WEF Nexus) have been put forward one after another.
In the same economy, the relationship between water, energy and food is inseparable. It is divided into three sectors to operate. If one sector changes, it will affect the other or two sectors. If energy is insufficient, it will affect water and food security. From the national economic plan, it is bound to explore, predict and analyze the relationship between the three sectors of water, energy and food, so as to achieve balanced development of all sectors and maximize benefits.
This research is based on Taiwan’s industry association table as the data material. The research objectives is to propose a new input-output table (IO table) forecasting method, based on the existing historical IO table, based on the concept of the generalized linear model (GLM), and considering the existing constraints and the method of correction of estimation error. Use new forecasting methods to predict future input-output tables, analyze the correlations between industries, observe changes in correlations between different years, detect and analyze the development direction of industries, and evaluate the relevance of industries' demand for natural resources.
In the generalized linear model, exponential distribution, gaussian (normal) distribution, inverse gaussian distribution, gamma distribution and best distribution are used to analyze data calculation and compare their applicability. As results, exponential distribution, gamma distribution, and best distribution are found the estimation effect is relatively good. Among the three sectors of water, energy and food, the estimation effect of the food sector is the best.
In the future, if the government's organizational structure and transaction operation system can be more comprehensive and sound, the transaction data platform has a more complete environment, and the data is more complete, then the forecast risk can be reduced and the verification can be smoothly verified. The evaluation method developed by this research will be more comprehensive. It is practical and can provide the government with some useful information when formulating countermeasures.

並列關鍵字

SDGs ； WEF Nexus ； Input-Output Analysis ； GLM ； Risk

參考文獻

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