金融危機對經濟成長影響之研究：以亞洲國家為例

The Impact of Financial Crisis on Economic Growth:Case of Asian Countries

林銘泉(Ming-Chuan Lin)

指導教授 ： 李顯峰

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.02453

摘要

自1990年代亞洲金融危機開始，許多研究開始探討外債和資本流入對新興經濟市場的影響。資本流入對於經濟之影響有許多不同見解，但外債被廣泛的認為會增加引發金融危機之風險。本文主要應用亞洲十國 (日本、中國、台灣、南韓、菲律賓、新加坡、馬來西亞、越南、印度尼西亞、泰國) 自1970至2009年為樣本，研究資本流入和外債對於金融危機之影響，以及透過發生金融危機，對經濟成長發揮長短期的影響。實證研究結果顯示資本流入和外債比例增加容易引發金融危機。但影響程度也取決於國家之外匯存底和其他總體經濟基本面等條件。也發現資本流入對經濟成長影響在短期內顯著且有正向之影響，而經由外債所引起之金融危機對於經濟成長不論在長期或短期皆呈現負向影響。

關鍵字

資本流入 ； 外債 ； 經濟成長 ； 金融危機 ； 總體經濟基本面

並列摘要

Since the East Asia financial crisis in late 1990s, several studies have investigated the relationship of capital inflow and external debt to economic growth in emerging markets. There are several various points of view toward the effect of capital inflow, but external debt has been widely believed to increase the risk of financial crisis. In this paper, we investigate the effect of capital inflow and external debt on financial crisis and its long run effect on economic growth using 10 countries (Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand) in Asia spanning from 1970 to 2009. Our empirical findings suggest higher capital inflow and external debt ratio would result in higher possibility of financial crisis, although the strength of the association strongly depends on the country’s foreign reserve and other macroeconomic fundamentals. We also find that capital inflow has positive effect in the short run, while no matter in the short or long run, financial crisis triggered by the external debt has a negative effect on economic growth.

並列關鍵字

Foreign capital inflow ； external debt ； economic growth ； financial crisis ； macroeconomic fundamentals

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