政府支出對經濟成長影響之研究

現代政府支出的重要性及影響力日益提高，政府資源的配置對經濟發展影響重大，財政政策是政府維持經濟穩定不可或缺的工具，本文以台灣、日本、南韓、新加坡、中國、香港、泰國、馬來西亞、菲律賓及印度等亞洲10個經濟體，研究政府總支出、政府消費支出及政府投資支出對經濟成長的影響，考量1997年亞洲金融風暴及2008年金融海嘯造成的結構性改變，分別利用兩階段最小平方法(2SLS)和追蹤資料(Panel Data)迴歸模型進行分析。實證結果顯示，高所得經濟體的政府消費支出與經濟成長為不顯著負相關，而亞洲各經濟體的政府總支出、政府消費支出及政府投資支出對經濟成長均呈現不顯著的正相關。政府在預算有限的情況下，應衡量施政目標的優先順序，妥適規劃財政支出，提升經濟成長，促進社會安定與均衡發展。

關鍵字

經濟成長；政府支出；兩階段最小平方法；結構變化檢定；追蹤資料迴歸模型

並列摘要

The importance and influence of modern government spending is increasing. The allocation of government resources has a major impact on economic development. Fiscal policy is an indispensable tool for the government to maintain economic stability. This article uses Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, and India, 10 economies in Asia, to study the impact of total government expenditure, government consumption expenditure and government investment expenditure on economic growth, and considers the structural changes caused by the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 financial crisis. Using the two-stage least square method (2SLS) and panel data model for analysis, the empirical results show that, government consumption expenditure in high-income economies is not significantly negatively correlated with economic growth, the total government expenditure, government consumption expenditures and government investment expenditures of Asian economies are not significantly positively correlated with their economic growth. In the case of limited budgets, the government should weigh the priorities of its governance objectives, properly plan fiscal expenditures, enhance economic growth, and promote social stability and balanced development.