廠商的營運策略對航運運費的影響

The Influence of Firms’ Operational Strategies on the Liner Shipping Freight

楊怡瑩(Yi-YingYang)

指導教授 ： 宋玉生

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2014.02353

摘要

本文的目的在於檢視運費同盟解散後，領導廠商的訂價策略對海運運價是否造成影響。我們先觀察運費同盟解散之後海運業市場集中度的變化，了解運費同盟後海運的產業結構。再以Chow Test進行是否有結構轉變的檢定，就結構的轉變點的位置，進一步討論航商的運力配置及訂價策略對遠東到歐洲和地中海運價的影響。透過檢視2012：M1-2013：M12遠東到歐洲、地中海航線的panel data，運用固定效果模型，發現航運市場受到成本面燃油成本及需求面運量的影響顯著，然而整體航商的艙位供給對運費未有顯著的影響。於是我們進一步檢視各家航商的艙位供給量個別對於運費的影響，實證結果發現，航商的運力配置對於運費具有顯著的影響。最後，我們透過ARIMA模型的建構，希冀能對運價進行預測。

關鍵字

運費同盟 ； 市場集中度 ； 固定效果模型 ； 航運市場

並列摘要

This study mainly focused on how the shipping companies’ operational strategies influence the liner shipping industry after the European Union decided to repeal its block exemption from the European Competition Law for liner shipping conferences. To answer it, we address some related points to approach the Study’s core question. First, we observe the market structure and market concentration of the liner shipping industry. Furthermore, we use Chow test to exam whether there’s structural break while the leading company of shipping industry, Maersk, changes its CEO and took the different operational strategy In January 2012. And we use Panel Data to analyze the factors affect the ocean freight. Moreover, we observe whether the capacity of each shipping line influence the containerized ocean freight. To conclude, we hope to construct ARIMA model to forecast the ocean freight.

並列關鍵字

Freight Conference ； Market Concentration ； Fixed-Effects Model ； the Liner Shipping Industry

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