摘要
台灣不動產市場在私有制的基礎下，伴隨著台灣的經濟成長已發展四、五十年；其間不動產市場經歷三波主要的景氣高峰與循環，直到1991年以後受到市場供給過剩、經濟成長減緩以及國內外政經情勢變化因素的影響，迄今仍長期陷於低迷狀態；傳統「有土斯有財」的觀念與視不動產為保值工具的投資行為，此刻正面臨前所未有的衝擊與挑戰。 中國大陸自1979年改革開放，經濟體制有重大變革；不動產制度在仍保留土地為公有制的基礎下，則於1988年實行土地使用權有償出讓和轉讓，從此確立不動產爲「流通商品」，並建立了大陸不動產市場發展的契機；其市場較具體成熟發展是近十年的事，此同時大陸經濟快速成長，也帶動不動產市場的蓬勃發展。尤其未來2008年北京奧運會及2010年上海世博會的舉行，將會為中國大陸經濟發展與不動產市場帶來新的一波動力。其中上海作為中國大陸經濟成長中一顆閃亮耀眼的明珠，更吸引全世界投資者的目光。 就當前的發展趨勢分析，上海未來幾年的不動產市場的確頗具投資經營的價值。但兩岸產權制度不同，發展歷程各異，投資人對於兩岸不動產的投資應如何評估選擇，是一項值得關切的課題。本研究透過兩岸不動產基本環境、產業發展與投資決策關鍵點的探討，採用個案分析的方式，以上海、台北兩地的商用辦公大樓為研究對象，進行實際案例的投資評估分析。主要研究的重點與目的為： 1、先就兩岸不動產投資環境現況比較分析，演繹市場的發展趨勢，綜合整理影響影兩地不動產市場發展的因素架構。 2、經由個案分析兩岸不動產投資過程，定期的租金收益與預期的不動產增值，所產生的投資效益。 3、以現代財務分析工具，考慮兩岸不動產與金融市場的因素，探討兩岸不動產投資的可行性；並分析兩地間投資決策的差異，尋得適切的關鍵因素，供投資者參考。 本研究所獲得的研究結果如下四點： 1、以目前兩岸不動產市場條件及未來發展趨勢，純就收益觀點，上海的商用不動產在中短期的投資策略上是可考慮作為投資選擇；但從政經發展的成熟度、市場交易的穩定性以及產權的永恆價值面來看，上海長期的風險與不確定性顯然高於台北；因此台北不動產的長期投資效益仍不容忽略。 2、目前上海商用不動產投資效益高於台北，是因低房價、高租金差異的影響；本研究之個案分析及結論是驗證目前兩岸不動產市場的投資價值，長期的投資效益仍有賴於審慎準確評估兩岸不動產市場的發展變化。 3、在以融資方式進行不動產的投資時，應評估投資報酬率與融資利率在決策上的邊際點，並發揮稅盾效應。 4、長期投資者應審慎考量投資地區的政府政策、行政法規、匯率變動的風險，以及產權價值長期的變化；這些因素都足以影響投資效益的結果。
關鍵字
兩岸不動產投資並列摘要
The Taiwan real estate market on the basis of private ownership has been developed for forty to fifty years with economic growth. During this period, Taiwan real estate market experienced three main prosperous cycles. But after 1991, due to real estate market oversupply, economic growth slowdown and domestic and international circumstance factor influence, it still has been in the long time murky condition up to now. Traditional opinions of “Holding real estate means the symptom of wealth” and keeping real estate for appreciation are questionable for investors now. The economic system of Mainland China has significant transformation since it had executed open policy in 1979. The real estate system still remains the land on the basis of public ownership, but the leasehold estates could be transferred after 1988. After that time, real estate in Mainland China becomes “the circulation commodity” which inspires the market development. It is the recent ten years that Mainland Chin real estate market has developed maturely and vigorously due to rapid economy growth. Above all, in the near future, the 2008 Olympic Games at Beijing and the 2010 World Exhibition at Shanghai will motivate the Mainland China economy and real estate market to grow faster. Especially for Shanghai, it will become the “shining pearl” in Mainland China and attract global investors’ sights. On the analysis of current development trend, Shanghai real estate market is worth investing in the few years. But Investors should have more concern about the different real estate ownership and development stage from Taiwan and Mainland China, then you can have an more exact estimate and make a right investment decision. Based on the basic environment, industrial development and the key points of real estate investment decision-making of Taiwan and Mainland China, the project with case study approach of which selected Taipei and Shanghai office buildings as research objective makes practical investment analysis. The main purposes of project are as following: 1.To compare the current circumstance of real estate investment environment in Taiwan and Mainland China, describe the trend of the market development, then generalize those factors which affect the real estate market development. 2. To analyze the investment profit by means of case study which compares with the investment process, the fixed rental income and expected appreciation of real estate. 3. To consider the Taiwan and Mainland China real estate market and monetary market, and study the feasibility of real estate investment in above areas by using the modern financial analysis tools; also analyze the different investment decision-making and find out the key points for investors’reference. The project makes four conclusions as followings: 1. Based on present Taiwan and Mainland China real estate market conditions and predicted development tendency, the Shanghai commercial real estate is a good choice of making investment in the short and middle term period if in the income approach point of view. But in the maturity of political and economic development, the stability of market trading and the estates value points of view, the Shanghai commercial real estate is more potentially risky and uncertain than Taipei. So the long-term investment profit of real estate in Taipei still cannot be negligent. 2. The reasons of the present Shanghai commercial real estate investment profit higher than Taipei are the lower real estate price and higher rental income. The case study of the project verifies the present investment value of Taiwan and Mainland China real estate. But the long- term investment profit in the above areas depends on the accurate estimate of real estate market development in the future. 3. Investors should estimate the marginal utility of the rate of return and mortgage rate, and also consider the tax shield when they make real estate investment by mortgage. 4. Long-term investors should carefully consider the local government policy, administrative rules, exchange rate risk and the estates value of real estate. These factors all sufficiently affect the investment profit.