第三代太陽能技術與產業發展之情境分析

Third Generation Photovoltaic Technology and Industrial Developemnt: A Scenario Analysis

史中翰(John-Calvin Smith)

指導教授 ： 李吉仁

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/國際企業學研究所/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2008.01563

摘要

第三代太陽能技術與產業發展之情境分析
根據近期能源需求之大量成長的趨勢，可實用且可替代之再生能源引起了大眾的興趣。太
陽能光電在市場上毫無先例的需求量已造成其主要配件的短缺。上述之情勢導致價格與盈
利超越了平衡點， 也因此激勵了投資者之進一步的投資。目前之經濟情況已改變了市場
的競爭背景，且對於市場需求是否繼續成長以及盈利空間帶來了一些疑點，製造第一代太
陽能光電的公司較有可能承受最大的損失。不同於在1980 年代早期當能源價格下跌時的
情形，就算沒有化石燃料的短缺，太陽能光電的發展可能已達到了可持續的水準。
直到近期，太陽能光電之產業經歷了高峰的投資期，也因此促進了大量的創新。因為技術
上的進步與供應鏈的創新，第三代太陽能光電應比目前現有之技術來的更有效率，且比傳
統化石燃料更具有競爭性。從美國矽谷開始之起步者(或任何其他擁有可實用之第三代太
陽能光電技術的公司)將可使用亞洲之原始設計製造商/電子製造服務公司來快速的進入市
場，且免投入大幅的成本來製造資本密集型的能量。因此，資本有限之小規模起步者將有
可能為能源產業帶來一個典範的轉移。

關鍵字

第三代太陽 ； 產業發展 ； 情境分析

並列摘要

With the recent trends of tremendous energy demand growth, viable alternative renewable
energy sources have received great interest. Unprecedented demand in the photovoltaic (PV)
market resulted in shortages of key inputs. This led to above equilibrium prices and profit,
which in turn stimulated further investment. Current economic conditions have changed the
competitive landscape to one of que stionable further demand and profits, firms that produce
first generation PV are likely to suffer the most. Unlike the early 1980’s when energy prices
declined, PV development may have reached a sustainable level even without shortages of
fossil fuels.
The industry was until most recently in a period of high investment, resulting in much
innovation. Due to technological advances and supply chain innovation, third generation PV
should be both more efficient than current technology as well as competitive with conventional
fossil fuels. Silicon Valley startups (or any other firms that have viable third generation
technologies), will be able to use Asian ODM/EMS firms to move very quickly into this market
without the significant cost of building capitally intensive capacity. Thus, small startups with
limited capital can potentially create a paradigm shift in the energy industry.

並列關鍵字

Third Generation Photovoltaic Industry ； Industry Scenario ； Venture Capital

參考文獻

Davis, Ged R., Energy for Planet Earth, Scientific American. September, p. 55-62, 1990.

Energy Information Administration, System for the Analysis of the Global Energy Markets, Washington D.C., 2007.

Green, M., Third Generation Photovoltaics, Advanced Solar Energy Conversion, 2003.

Inside Renewable Energy, Podcast, September 28, 2007, www.renewableenergyworld.com.

Inside Renewable Energy, Podcast, October 18, 2007, www.renewableenergyworld.com.