以情境分析法探討多點觸控面板技術發展之趨勢-以投射式電容觸控技術為例

Scenario Analysis for the Development of Multi-Touch Technology-A Case of Projected Capacitive Touch Technology

秘琮翔(Tsung-Hsiang Mi)

指導教授 ： 邱榆淨

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201000565

摘要

摘要
本研究旨在探討投射式電容觸控技術(Projected Capacitive Touch Technology)之未來發展趨勢，並試圖藉由情境分析法(Scenario Analysis)與德爾菲法(Delphi Method)完整分析投射式電容觸控技術在各種不同情境下之發展趨勢。為了避免忽略任何重要而極端的情形出現，本研究從大量的產業次級資料中，以及與相關產業專家的深度訪談及問卷調查中，尋找關於產業發展的重要不確定性因素及其對投射式電容觸控技術可能的影響，從而建構與該技術相關產業未來發展的可能情境。
本研究發現影響投射式電容觸控技術發展趨勢之關鍵因素為總體環境條件、產業結構相互關係、技術發展狀況與市場應用及需求。本研究依產業競合、技術發展、市場需求三個不確定軸面，分別建立了最樂觀情境(過度期待)、最悲觀情境(保守觀望)及最有可能情境(穩定成長)三種未來技術與產業發展的情境，並提供不同情境下產業因應的策略建議。
最後本研究提出對投射式電容觸控技術未來發展的策略建議，首先，建議上游產業擴充產能及將基板尺寸放大，並向下整合；第二建議TFT及其相關產業利用現有製程設備與技術可投入生產，並結合顯示器既有資源，可加速進入市場；第三建議驅動晶片廠可避開原既有專利衝突，另行申請其他專利或尋求既有專利授權，並積極發展多點觸控演算法；第四建議領導品牌積極導入多點觸控技術，除可加速多點觸控技術發展外，更可達教育市場之目的；第五建議軟體業者利用成熟的平台與完整的開發工具，開發多點觸控應用軟體，並朝中、大尺寸多點觸控應用軟體發展，拓展新的應用領域；第六建議在領導品牌教育市場下，有助於使用者習慣多點觸控的行為模式及相關應用產品，因此可積極投入該領域；最後建議相關產業必須加速改善現有製程技術與設備，提高良率與產能，降低整體成本，以符合市場期待。

關鍵字

投射式電容觸控技術 ； 多點觸控技術 ； 多指觸控技術 ； 產業分析 ； 情境分析法 ； 德爾菲法

並列摘要

Abstract
This study is dedicated to cross-examine the future development of Projected Capacitive Touch Technology（PCTT） and tries to fully analyze its growing tendency under various different conditions by means of such methods as Scenario Analysis and Delphi Analysis. To avoid any neglecting of any important and unexpected situation, this study has carefully searched out any major and uncertain factors concerned that might affect such technology throughout a quantity of industrial secondary data, profound interview of many related industrial experts, and questionnaires aimed at lots of specialists. In addition, we have also worked out all possible scenarios, which might happened in the future and likely impacted the related industries linked to such technology.
This study has noticed the key factors which can influence the developing tendency of the PCTT, they are as follows: overall environmental conditions, inter-connections among existing industrial structures, how technical evolution affects the market application and requirement. According to the following three respects : industries emerging, technical evolution and market requirement, we have mapped out three possible scenarios respectively concerning the technical and industrial development: over-expectation（the most optimistic situation）, a wait-and-see attitude（the most pessimistic situation）, stable growth（the most possible situation）. At the same time, we have also offered our tactical suggestions to those industries as how to cope with the different situations in front of them.
Finally, this study tries to put forward its tactical suggestions aiming at the future developing of the PCTT, they consist of: first of all, we suggest the Upstream manufacturers should expand their production capacity and enlarge the size of their base-plate and integrate their resources downwards; the second suggestion is that the TFT and its related industries may throw themselves into production process with current available manufacturing facilities and techniques, and, if possible, combining their available resources of display device and entering the market quickly; The third one is that the driving chip factory may avoid now existing patent conflicts and apply for other patent or pursue patent authorization now available in hand, and developing multi-point touch-and-control algorithm with all its energy; The fourth one is that the leading trade-mark products should lead in multi-point touch-and-control technology with which not only they can speed up the development of such technology, but also they can educate the market being familiar with more necessary knowhow; the fifth one is that the software industry owners have to utilize their mature platform and integrated exploiting tools to develop multi-point touch-and-control application software, then moving forward resolutely towards the medium- and large-size multi-point touch-and-control application software so as to open up its new territory; the sixth one is that the leading trade-mark products should teach the consuming market, so helping the users be accustomed to the multi-point touch-and-control modes and its related products and offering a chance to the owners to throw themselves into that territory; the last one is that the related industries must quicken their paces to improve manufacturing techniques and equipments, up-grade availability rate and capability, decrease the total cost, etc. so as to correspond the expectation of the market.

並列關鍵字

Scenarios analysis ； Delphi method ； Industrial analysis ； Multi-touch ； Multi-finger touch-and-control ； Multi-point touch-and-control ； Projected Capacitive Touch Technology (PCTT)

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