隨著網際網路的發達,以及網路通訊具備成本低廉及多媒體通訊的優勢,促使網路電話快速成長,傳統類比語音通話量因此衰退,網路電話未來的發展,自然成為眾所矚目的焦點,經營網路電話也成為一股不可擋的趨勢,網路電話成為傳統電信網路的替代品似乎已成定局。 由於技術的創新及變動往往影響企業的策略,改變產業或市場的範疇,甚至對社會、企業造成重大的衝擊,因此,無論是政府、企業,從事一項決策時,都必須先對其外部環境及內部環境進行預測,以瞭解未來的變化,避免風險、降低損失,透過技術預測,協助決策者以客觀角度制定策略,對高階主管及管理者有莫大的幫助。 本研究結合情境分析法及羅吉斯成長曲線法,以「技術發展」、「競爭程度」及「消費者需求」等三個軸面,探討我國未來十年網路電話在用戶數及通訊量發展情形,列出未來市場發展的可能情形,尋找影響市場發展的驅動力量,並評估衝擊影響程度及未來變化的可預測程度。研究結論如下: 一、設備業者:應朝家庭網路整合的功能發展、擁有生產製造關鍵組件的核心技術,建立自有品牌,創造企業利基並爭取較多的利潤空間,積極參與網路電話通信技術協定的制定,降低研發時程及產品成本,提供有線、無線網路整合服務,提供多功能合一的產品,加強設備人性化設計,在零售市場的發展佈局,擴大市場廣度。 二、服務提供業者:積極建設寬頻網路,結合上、下游廠商組織策略聯盟,降低整體營運成本,增加競爭力,建立品牌形象,進行市場區隔,提供數據、語音、影像三合一服務,提供客製化服務留住企業客戶,未來加值服務是主要營收來源,差異化服務是未來網路電話服務產業的發展趨勢。 三、有線電視業者:利用電視服務、寬頻上網及網路電話的綑綁銷售策略,增加寬頻及網路電話服務的市場佔有率 四 、固網業者:成立專職部門經營網路電話,可免除固網包袱,進行有線與無線網路整合,及老舊機房汰換工程,善用固網最後一哩的優勢。
Along with the prosperity of the internet and owing to the advantage of the popular price, the IP telephony is growing up fast recently. According to the decline of the usage of analog network, the future of the IP telephony attracts everyone's attention. The substitution of IP telephony for the PSTN seems to be a inevitable sitution, and dealing in the IP telephony becomes a trend that can't be halted. Because the innovation and change of technology often influence the tactics of enterprises, the category of the market, and huge impacts on the society, technological predictions help the policymaker, executive or administrator to generate the objective trategy. Through the combination of the scenario analyst and the Logistic curve, we sum up as follows: (1) The equipment manufacturer should deliberate on the needs of family network, expanding the niche of the enterprise by hold the kernel of manufacturing. In order to reduce the cost of researching and developing, the manufacturer should participate in VoIP technological formulation actives. (2) In order to reduce operating cost and increase enterprise’s competitiveness, the ITSP should organize strategic alliance with their supplier. They should pay more attention on the development of value-added service because differential service is a trend in the future. (3) The CATV would increase their market share by utilizing the service of the TV, broadband and IP telephony, (4) The fix-lined service provider shoul establish the full-time department which deals with the IP telephony service and making best usages of last mile .