- 學位論文
利率上升及日圓急貶對台灣經濟的影響
The Effects of Substantial Increase in Interest Rates and Sharp Depreciation of Japanese Yen on Taiwan's Economy
摘要
本研究的目的在於透過台灣總體計量模型的建立，分析當國內利率上升及日圓急貶後對我國總體經濟的影響。在2012的下半年發生了兩件可能對我國經濟造成衝擊的事件，首先是兩岸貨幣清算制度的簽訂，從此兩岸之間貨幣的兌換不再需要透過其他貨幣，除了方便民眾外，更值得注意的是貨幣的連結程度增加是否會影響到我國的貨幣政策，假若有影響使得我國基準利率上升，那麼對整體經濟的衝擊程度為何? 再來是日本自民黨重新執政後祭出了寬鬆日圓的政策，日圓的急速貶值能否達成其政策目標尚屬未知，然而日圓的貶值對台灣有影響是肯定的，透過本研究建立的模型，可觀察對台灣的影響程度。 經由模型的情境分析，假若貨幣政策受到大陸的影響使得我國基準利率上調，對我國經濟並沒有嚴重影響，台灣的經濟成長與低利率並沒有必然的關係；而日圓的急貶除了造成對日本出口的減少外，會使得新台幣也跟著貶值，這是模型的預測，方向的正確與否尚有待時間的檢驗。
並列摘要
The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects on economic atmosphere change by constructing Taiwan macro-econometric model. There were two events might have impacts on Taiwan’s economy in second half of 2012. First, the Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in Currency Settlement across the Taiwan Strait was officially signed. Once the cross-strait currency settlement mechanism gets into effect, people can directly exchange the currencies between NTD and RMB. Companies transacting business will no longer need to be dealt based on US dollars. Will the linkage between NTD& RMB affect the monetary policy in Taiwan? Second, the substantial depreciation of the yen is mainly reflected in exchange rates since Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office. With such an intensive trade relationship between Taiwan and Japan, Taiwan must be cautious about the possible impact of the yen's depreciation. This study shows that the appreciation of base rate (e.g., discount rate) has no significant impact on Taiwan's economy. A sharp depreciation of Yen is expected to reduce Taiwan's export to Japan and to depreciate the NT dollar.