以 Lotka-Volterra 雙生態競爭模型探討口碑生命週期之型態

A Study on the patterns of word-of-mouth life cycle in Lotka-Volterra competition model

黃昕恩(Hsin-En Huang)

指導教授 ： 任立中

國立臺灣大學/共同教育中心/統計碩士學位學程/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201601307

摘要

電影產業在全球經濟中扮演高度的重要性，近年來，全球電影票房的屢屢升高，2015年全球電影票房收益達383億美元，創歷年新高，其中美加地區的電影票房收益就佔了約101億美元，由此可見，電影產業在市場中具有龐大的潛能，特別是對美國而言，因此本研究將以在美國上映之電影做為實證分析的對象。

許多研究皆證實口碑在消費行為上有重要的影響，過去亦有研究以口碑對電影產業進行探討，然而多以口碑的數量特性來衡量口碑效果，並未考量到口碑之正負面特性，其中，網路口碑相較於傳統口碑傳播速度更快，也更具有影響力，因此本研究將以網路口碑探討其特性對產品銷售的影響。

本研究蒐集了電影產業之口碑資料，以Lotka-Volterra Model作為研究架構，探討電影的正面評價與負面評價間之競爭關係，進而探討口碑效果之影響，其結論為正負面口碑互相競爭而影響對方之成長能力對於其模仿效果使用者是具有影響力的。

關鍵字

Lotka-Volterra Model ； 競爭模型 ； 口碑評價

並列摘要

Film industry plays an important role in global economic. Box office earnings increase year by year. In 2015, the United States box office earnings are about 10.1 billion dollars, with 38.3 billion dollars global box office earnings. We can found that film industry has a great potential, especially in the United States. As a result, our study will use the movies which are shown in the United States as research objects.

Several researchers have studied the effect of amount of word-of-mouth in recent years, especially the electronic word-of-mouth. Although the effects of amount of word-of-mouth on film industry have been examined by many investigators, no studied have investigated the effect of the positive and negative commentary about movie. So this paper will discuss the effect of the positive and negative electronic commentary on movie.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the competitive relation between positive and negative commentary by Lotka-Volterra Model. Since different competitive relation will have different effects, this paper proposes Lotka-Volterra Model is good for analyzing the relation and intersection from both side.

並列關鍵字

Lotka-Volterra Model ； competition model ； word-of-moth

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