湄公河三角洲濕地保護區生態旅遊： 氣候變遷調適的社會生態系取徑分析

Ecotourism in Mekong wetland protected areas: Rethinking the social-ecological system approach to climate change adaptation

范氏梁(Thi Loan Phan)

指導教授 ： 周素卿

共同指導教授 ： 林俊全(Jiun-Chuan Lin)

國立臺灣大學/理學院/氣候變遷與永續發展國際學位學程/博士(2022年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202201110

摘要

保護區管理從社會生態系統 (SES) 的角度而言是一個新興的研究趨勢，經當前與SES 有關的文獻回顧就發現缺乏與生態系統有關的外部實證研究，例如：氣候變化及當地適應。早期的SES法重視生態模式建構，較少考慮到社會系統的因素以及其對生態系的相互作用。雖然生態旅遊係當地經濟的選項，尤其係保護區在面臨全球環境及經濟變遷下的緩衝，但針對有關SES法的研究仍是少數。本論文透過實證法研究氣候變遷所造成的影響，並將生態旅遊作為保護區的主要適應性響應，提高SES在氣候變遷調適研究中的知識。
世界銀行 (2010) 指出，越南是對氣候變遷最脆弱的國家之一，並在全國內影響最嚴重的係湄公河三角洲 (以下縮寫為VMD; MONRE, 2019)。目前，VMD旅遊的政策以自然為本及永續發展為目標進行轉型，並使生態旅遊、農業旅遊以及社區旅遊成為重要的發展方向，尤其是保護區與其緩衝區。本研究針對VMD中的兩個藍薩濕地保護區，使用社會生態方法來進行比較分析，並探討生態旅遊與其在濕地保護區之生態及社會系統中的角色，並討論如何對應氣候變遷。
本研究以“生態旅遊如何助於 該地區的當地利益關係者適應氣候變遷？”為重要的問題，並採用多種研究方法來展現其複雜性。其中，使用定量方法包括 Mann-Kendall 秩檢驗、Theil-Sen 估計法和 Mann-Whitney-Pettit 法來分析 1978 年至 2019 年氣候參數的變化趨勢。同時，作為生態應對氣候變遷的指標，本研究以2002-2020年常態化差異植生指標 (NDVI) 來進行分析衛星圖，以及討論濕地植物群落之變動。另，進行專家詢問、在焦點小組討論（共有8組）中的深度訪談 (45 名受訪者) 和公眾參與地理資訊系統等定性方法，其目的為調查跨政府別及政府與當地社區之間在建設適應能力與行動中的互動。社區參與的方法特別適用於當地學生和當地人在全球系統動蕩的背景下自我評估他們的適應能力，例如在國外或偏遠地區的研究因covid-19流行導致禁止國際旅行而受阻。
研究結果顯示，隨者溫度以及極端事件增加，兩個國家公園的氣候在過去二十年中發生了顯著變化，然而常態化差異植生指標 (NDVI) 降低及低地植物群落擴大，改變了植物群落的時空分布。此外，透過使用社會生態系統方法，本研究發現氣候變遷從利害相關者的角度而說非視為植物群落變化的主要驅動力 (發現主要利害相關者並未將氣候變遷視為植物群落變化的主要驅動力)，而是濕地保護區多樣性退化的重要因素，導致適應不良的後果。根據定性分析結果，生態旅遊不僅對濕地保護區之經濟與保護面有重要的貢獻，而且提升兩地對氣候變遷的適應能力。生態旅遊發展以加強一體化管理、提高對生態的理解和認識來平衡社會與生態系統。適應行動的選擇在發展較好的旅遊更加多樣化以及會有更多科技支援，然旅遊與保護的共同利益在不同的國家公園有所不同，因此造成對永續發展負向影響。在此環境和政策變化的轉折點，本論文將研究結果提供給予越南湄公河三角洲的旅遊業與保護決策者參考。
最後，對社會生態系統的貢獻度上，本研究增加外部相關生態系統與適應的第二變數進入此框架，並從跨級別相互作用評估結果顯示，具有穩定功能的較高級別機構雖然透過規定文件提醒較低級別機構，但在製定適應管理和永續轉型的氣候適應政策方面仍然缺乏經驗。

關鍵字

生態旅遊 ； 社會生態系 ； 層級套疊系統 ； 適應能力 ； 社會參與研究 ； 保護區管理 ； 越南湄公河三角洲

並列摘要

Protected areas (PAs) management from social-ecological system (SES) approach is an emerging research trend. Reviewing current literature on SES, there is a lack of empirical studies from the External Related Ecosystems (ECO) such as climate change and its induced local adaptation. The early studies of SES approach focus more on ecological system modeling and account less for factors of the social systems as well as their interactions with ecological systems. Ecotourism, which is promoted as an economic alternative for local communities, particularly in the buffer zones of PAs in facing global environmental and economic changes, has been seldom investigated in scholarly work of SES approach. This study empirically investigates the impact of climate change and examines ecotourism as the major adaptive response in PAs to advance the knowledge of SESs in the research theme of climate change adaptation.
The research was conducted in Vietnam, one of the top five most vulnerable countries impacted by climate change (World Bank, 2010). In the whole country, the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is the most severely impacted region (Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment (MONRE), 2019). Currently, the VMD is undergoing several important policy transitions towards a nature-based and sustainable direction. Ecotourism, agritourism, and community-based tourism are three key orientations of tourism development in the VMD, especially in the PAs and their buffer zones. This study carries out a comparative analysis of two Ramsar-site PAs in VMD, which are representative PAs of wetland landscape in Vietnam. The study applies the SES approach to analyze ecotourism and its roles in the ecological and social systems of Wetland Protected Areas (WPA) to adapt to climate change.
The study tries to answer the major research question (RQ) “to what extent is ecotourism contributing to climate change adaptation of local stakeholders in WPA in the VMD?” Multiple research methods are adopted to reveal the complexity of the above research question. The quantitative methods include the Mann-Kendall rank test, Theil-Sen estimate method, and the Mann-Whitney-Pettit method to analyze trends in climate parameters from 1978 to 2019. The wetland vegetation changes, as the index of ecological response to climate change, are detected by the analysis of Satellite images based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 2002 to 2020. The qualitative methods include experts’ consultancy, in-depth interviews (with 45 respondents), and Public Participation Geographic Information Systems (PPGIS) in focus group discussions (FGDs) (with 8 FGDs) to investigate interactions at cross-government levels and between government and local communities in building adaptive capacity and forming adaptation actions. A community-engaged approach was applied particularly with the engagement of local students and local people in self-assessing their adaptive capacity in the context of global system turmoil such as the covid-19 epidemic when research abroad or in remote areas is hindered by the ban on international travel.
The results show that the climate in the two national parks (NPs) has changed significantly during the past two decades with an increase in both temperature and extreme events. However, a decrease in NDVI dynamics and an extension of lowland vegetation communities dominate the spatio-temporal change of vegetation. In addition, by using the SES approach, it is found that climate change is not the main driver of vegetation change but has been mentioned in recent local reports and provincial disaster prevention documents as the main culprit for biodiversity degradation of WPA, which inherently results in maladaptive actions. Based on the results of content analysis in qualitative data, it is found that ecotourism has made significant contributions to WPA regions in both economy and conservation as well as enhanced both regions’ adaptive capacity of climate change adaptation. Ecotourism development can balance the social system and ecological system by strengthening integrated management and improving ecological knowledge and understanding. The options for adaptation actions in the better-developed tourism site are more diverse and technology-supported. However, the co-benefits of tourism and conservation are inconsistent in different NPs and result in negative impacts on sustainable development. The study shall provide references for decision-makers in tourism and PAs in the VMD in this tipping point of environmental and policy changes.
Finally, on contribution to SES approach this research revises and adds some second-tier variables of external related ecosystems and adaptation for the SES framework. From the panarchy approach in assessing the cross-level interactions, the result of two case studies shows that the higher-level agencies with stabilization functions though “remember” the lower ones still lack experiences in shaping their climate adaptation policy for adaptive management and sustainable transition.

並列關鍵字

Ecotourism ； social-ecological systems ； panarchy ； adaptive capacity ； community-engaged research ； protected area management ； Vietnamese Mekong Delta

參考文獻

References

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