本研究將以水庫集水區為研究案例,評估在氣候變遷下,未來可能發生之衝擊,且以翡翠水庫集水區為研究區域。 因此,本研究先使用Mann-Kendall趨勢檢定法與機率分布檢定法分析翡翠水庫集水區的各項水文氣象資料(歷史資料、RSM、reanlysis)。爾後再進行集水區入流量的模擬,對於未來氣候條件將使用GCM氣候模式資料,經過RSM模式動力降尺度後的氣候資料,再利用集水區模式HSPF進行模擬未來氣候變遷下的集水區入流量。根據模擬結果,期望能了解未來水資源可能發生衝擊,以利及早調適與因應。 結果顯示:使用Mann-Kendall趨勢檢定法於翡翠水庫集水區的各項水文氣象資料結果為:雨量有減少的趨勢、溫度則為增加的趨勢;雨量機率分布檢定方面,未來出現機率分布改變的現象;實際模擬該研究區域入流量時,逐月分析方面,發現七月流量將會大幅增加,而十、十一、十二月的入流量也普遍增加,五月及六月卻為減少。豐枯水期的分界有改變的跡象。
This research is analyzed the impact under climate change and chosen watershed of Feisui reservoir as the studying case. This research is used the decretory method of Mann-Kendall and probability distribution to analyze data(history、RSM、reanalysis data).In order to response climate change in the future, using the GCM data witch is dynamical downscaled by RSM as the input of HSPF model. HSPF can simulate the inflow of watershed of Feisui reservoir under climate change. According to the result of simulation, we expect to be able to find impact of the water resource in the future. it is right to adjust and response early. According to the result, rainfall is decrease and temperature is increase by using the method of Mann-Kendall; Probability distribution of rainfall will be changed in the future. Result of inflow simulation is increase acutely in July and is increase in October, November and December. But result of inflow simulation is decrease in May and June. The divide of wet and drought season will be changed.