電力供需、電價及經濟成長之關係研究－分量迴歸的應用

A Study on the Relations between Electricity Supply and Demand, Electricity Price and Economic Growth–An Application of Quantile Regression Analysis

林姿吟(Tzu-Yin Lin)

指導教授 ： 唐代彪

共同指導教授 ： 張倉耀(Tsangyao Chang)

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202004354

摘要

電力是現代經濟的核心，而電力與經濟成長之間的關係一直都是許多學者樂於探討的議題，惟大多數研究都是以電力消費量等需求面去作探討。隨著近年來能源供給的配比、核電廠興廢、再生能源發展等電力供給面議題興起，本研究除了探討台灣電力需求跟經濟成長的關係外，將進一步延伸，同時也把電力供給及電價因素納入變數，進行因果關係研究，期能提供能源政策制定參考。
為探討台灣電力供給、電力需求、電價及經濟成長之間的關係，本研究使用2009年第1季至2019年第4季之發電裝置容量、電力消費量、電價及國內生產毛額等資料，透過分量迴歸法及Toda-Yamamoto Granger因果關係檢定法，並考量是否存在結構性變動，在不同分量下進行因果關係檢定。
本研究重要實證結果如下：(一)電價對電力需求於各分量皆有顯著的負影響。在電力需求較低時，影響幅度尤為明顯。(二)經濟成長對電力需求於各分量水準下皆有顯著的正影響。在電力需求較低時，影響幅度尤為明顯。(三)電價對電力供給在各分量水準下並無顯著影響。(四)電力供給相對低時，經濟成長對電力供給有顯著的正向影響，惟電力供給相對高時，經濟成長對電力供給無顯著的影響。(五)電力供給與需求在均衡時彼此互有影響，且電力需求影響較為強烈，為領導角色。

關鍵字

電力 ； 經濟成長 ； 分量迴歸 ； Toda-Yamamoto Granger因果關係檢定 ； 結構性變動

並列摘要

Electricity is the core of the current economic system. The research on the relationship between electricity and economic growth has attracted great interest from many scholars for a long time. However, most studies focused on the demand side such as electricity consumption. Considering the rise of electricity supply issues in recent years, such as the proportion of energy supply sources, the development of nuclear power plants, and the development of renewable energy, this study not only studies the relationship between Taiwan's electricity demand and economic growth, but also takes electricity supply and electricity prices as variables. We study and analyze the causality of these variables, and we hope that our research results can provide the government with reference when formulating energy policies.
In order to study the relationship between Taiwan's electricity supply, electricity demand, electricity price and economic growth, this study uses data such as installed capacity, electricity consumption, electricity price, and gross domestic production from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2019. We use Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test by quantile regression to test the nexus between variables, and also consider the structural breaks in the causal relationship. Then we carry out the causality test at different quantile level.
The important empirical results of this study are as follows: (1) Electricity price has a significant negative impact on electricity demand at each quantile level. And when the electricity demand is relatively low, the impact is particularly obvious. (2) Economic growth has a significant positive impact on electricity demand at all quantile levels. The impact is particularly obvious when the power demand is relatively low. (3) Electricity prices have no significant impact on electricity supply at all quantile levels. (4) When electricity supply is relatively low, economic growth has a significant positive impact on electricity supply. But when electricity supply is relatively high, economic growth has no significant impact on electricity supply. (5) Electricity supply and demand influence each other when they are in equilibrium. Moreover, the impact of electricity demand is relatively strong, and it plays a leading role.

並列關鍵字

electricity ； economic growth ； quantile regression ； Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test ； structural break

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