經濟發展、能源消費與二氧化碳排放量：國際投入產出結構分解分析

Economic Development, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions: An International Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis

阮霸安海(Hai-Nguyen Ba An)

指導教授 ： 林師模 ； 林晉勗

中原大學/商學院/國際經營與貿易研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201500720

摘要

近年來，各國的經濟快速成長帶動了能源消耗量的增加，也造成二氧化碳排放量隨之增長，但由於各國在經濟結構及生產技術的差異，使得二氧化碳在各國呈現之排放狀況愈趨複雜。所以，若能清楚地了解造成二氧化碳排放量及能源消耗增加的驅動因素，勢必對各國是有利的。本研究旨在探討1995到2009年的全球二氧化碳排放及能源消耗逐年增長之決定因素。為了確定二氧化碳排放及能源消耗之間的關係，本研究採用跨區域之投入產出架構及WIOD資料庫，分解41個不同國家之二氧化碳排放量因人口、人均最終產品需求、最終產品之結構、貿易結構、技術結構等5種因素變動所導致的成分。本研究結果顯示，二氧化碳的排放量及能源消耗的增加主要是受到人均最終產品需求和人口變化的帶動，而最終商品結構的轉變及技術變化則對於減少二氧化碳排放有顯著影響。此外，二氧化碳的排放和能源之間有著密切的正向關係。

關鍵字

二氧化碳排放量，能源消耗，結構分解分析，跨區域投入產出模型

並列摘要

In recent years, rapid economic growth and increased energy consumption has led CO2 emissions to increase in a complex phenomenon involving countries with different technology and socioeconomic structures. To better understand this phenomenon, it is important to identify the relationships between each of the different factors driving CO2 emissions and increased energy consumption. This thesis aims to disentangle the annual growth in global CO2 emissions and energy consumption into their determinants for the period between 1995 and 2009. In addition, we determine the relationships between CO2 emissions and energy consumption. We use a multi-regional input-output model and the World Input-Output Database to decompose the annual variations in global and national emissions for 41 world regions into the changes in population, final demand per capita, and the commodity structure of final demand, trade structure, and technology. Our results find that changes in CO2 emissions and energy consumption are mainly driven by the growth in final demand per capita and population. In contrast, changes in the technology and the commodity composition of final demand reduce the emissions. Moreover, the levels of energy consumption and CO2 emissions are closely linked and increase in line with each other.

並列關鍵字

CO2 Emissions ； Energy Consumption ； Structural Decomposition Analysis ； Multiregional Input-Output Model.

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