重新探索影響再生能源發展的障礙間因果關係

Re-Exploration of the Causality between Barriers to Renewable Energy Development

黃仕杰(Shih-Chieh Huang)

指導教授 ： 駱尚廉

國立臺灣大學/工學院/環境工程學研究所/博士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2014.11146

摘要

為因應對氣候變遷的調適與人為溫室氣體排放減量之要求，再生能源的開發是一種被廣泛認可的解決方法。而在各類的再生能源中，風能不僅是一種零污染的能源，同時也具有高度的技術可行性與成本有效性的特點。儘管風能已被廣泛的應用，但由文獻的回顧可發現，風能的開發仍然會面臨來自不同領域的挑戰，且在大多數情況下，我們很難透過直接的觀察來確定限制因素間的關聯性。因為就理論而言，這些限制因素往往牽涉不同的領域，包括：經濟、社會、技術、政策及環境領域。換句話說，不同領域的因素間往往存在複雜的因果關係。因此，為了得到問題的解答，本研究首先透過文獻回顧的方式，來探討在經濟、社會、技術、政策及環境領域中各別包含哪些影響因子。其次，依據各篇文獻對影響因子的說明，來假設因子間之關係，並以此假設來建立影響因子間的因果關係模型。此研究目的，在於探討各影響因子的發生原因，及不同領域的因子間是如何相互影響，並透過模糊理論與多變量統計分析方法的應用，來進行模型的驗證；並預期透過對影響因子間關聯性的瞭解，可藉此釐清問題的發生原因，與可行的短、中、長期發展策略。研究發現，不同領域的影響因子間確實會互相影響，且這當中還存在一些值得注意的現象。

關鍵字

風能 ； 因果關係 ； 模糊理論 ； 國家政策 ； 投資成本 ； 間歇性特質

並列摘要

The development of renewable energy (RE) is a widely accepted solution to adaptation of climate change and reduction of the anthropogenic effects on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Among all types of RE, wind energy is not only a zero-pollution energy source, but also has a high degree of technical feasibility and cost-effective features. Although wind energy has been widely utilized, there are still challenges that need to be resolved, and in most situations, it can be difficult to determine the precise correlation between the limitations by direct observation, because they may be intertwined among various different areas, such as the economic, social, technical, policy and environmental dimensions. In other words, complex causalities often exist, stemming from multiple areas. In order to begin investigation into this question, this study first primarily focused on existing literature regarding wind energy related issues in order to reveal the limitations to wind energy development that were presently functioning in the economic, social, technical, policy and environmental areas; and secondly, to establish a causal model, which would be based on assumptions made from conclusions drawn regarding the relationships between the limitations that are documented in the literature. The purpose of this study was to understand the different limitations and how they influence each other, and then to validate this through the fuzzy theory and multivariate statistical analysis method. With an understanding of the correlation between limitations, we expect to be able to clarify the cause(s) of the limitations and possible short, medium and long-term development strategies. The study found that different limitations indeed affected each other, while some phenomena were worthy of further exploration.

並列關鍵字

Wind energy ； Causality ； Fuzzy theory ； National policies ； Investment costs ； Intermittency properties

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