情境變動下模型式決策支援系統開發研究

On Building of the Modeling Based Decision Support System Under the Environmental Change

陳鳳惠(Fung-Fei Chen)

指導教授 ： 曹承礎

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/資訊管理學研究所/博士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2013.11066

摘要

資訊系統之開發和應用，能為組織帶來核心競爭優勢，已是普遍認同的價值。然而，資訊系統之開發和設計存在著理論觀點和應用架構之間的落差，也一直是資管學域探討和研究的主題之一。2004年Alan R. Hevner et al.援引資管學域上兩大重要倚重學科，一是行為科學、一是設計科學，構建資訊系統在開發上所需的設計指引，解決資訊系統開發所面臨之使用者需求異動、使用者需求不易凍結、資訊系統開發完成後所要面臨的維護管理、功能更新升級等問題。這是資訊系統開發研究上的一大突破，也促使設計科學在資管學域上誕生與受重視。
本研究建立在此研究起點上，進一步檢視近年來在實務現象中，隨著環境結構快速變化的影響衝擊，資訊系統的開發與構建如何具備環境調適的能耐，從而延展其系統生命週期的問題。本研究透過檢視相關文獻，發展出一套因應情境變動下開發模型式決策支援系統所需之「多元整合性系統設計參考架構」，在系統的設計架構當中，建立模型—情境設計—IT，三者環環相扣、互相效力的循環關係。亦即從問題本質去構建模型，由廓清問題本質以汲取最大範圍的情境設計，然後，透過系統IT技術發展知識處理模式解決最大範圍的情境設計所可能延伸的「加重求解負擔，延長求解時間，甚或造成無法求解等問題」。期能透過模型—情境設計—IT三者互相循環效力的模式，解決模型式決策支援系統面對情境變動之需，隨時都能支應使用者進行最大範圍的情境案例模擬分析，延展其系統的使用年限，進而提升資訊系統之開發和應用在實質上的效益。
本研究選擇開發長期電源規劃決策支援系統作為研究的個案，透過個案系統實際開發建置過程以及進行三個與晚近能源政策相關之情境案例模擬分析結果，提出相關決策支援意涵，用以驗證所發展的「多元整合性系統設計參考架構」的確具有參考價值。本研究所提「模型—情境設計—IT」三者環環相扣，實是一個不斷循環發展的架構，展望未來，亦可以因應外在環境結構對於模型式決策支援系統之要求，而增掛新功能元件上去，讓模型式決策支援系統真實對於外在環境變動的要求，具有調適的能耐，也讓系統本身取得自我演化發展的能力，串接模型產生的資訊，開發新技術、新的資料處理架構，而將資訊進一步延展成知識；更能使得模型式決策支援系統之設計架構，發展出各式各樣的案例應用，豐富資訊系統開發上設計科學的內涵。

關鍵字

模型式決策支援系統 ； 設計科學 ； 長期電源規劃 ； 情境案例 ； 模擬分析

並列摘要

The development and application of information systems are commonly recognized as core competitive advantages to organizations. However, disparities between theoretical perspectives and application frameworks in the development and design of information systems has long been a topic of research in information management（IM）. In 2004, Hevner et al. referenced two subjects heavily relied upon in the information management field, namely, behavioral science and design science, to establish a design guide for developing information systems. This guide resolved issues such as user demand changes and difficulties regarding user demand fixation that apply to information system development（ISD）, as well as maintenance management and function updates and upgrades that follow the completion of information system. Hevner et al. contributed a significant breakthrough to the research of ISD, further introducing design science as a useful and valued subject in IM.
This study was based on the mentioned research. Examining recent phenomena, we investigated how, with the influence of a rapidly changing environmental structure, the development and establishment of information systems can provide tolerance in adapting to environments, subsequently developing a system life cycle. By examining relevant literature, this study developed a multidimensional integrated system design reference framework that is essential for the development of a modeling based decision support system（MDSS） that corresponds to and accommodates situational changes. In this system’s design framework, a mutually effective cyclical relationship comprising model, scenario design, and information technology (IT) was established. In other words, this study created a model based on the essence of a problem, clarifying the essence of the problem to draw upon and obtain a maximum range for scenario designs, and then used techniques involving system IT to develop a knowledge processing model to solve all increased solving load, extended solving duration, or insolvable problems that could possibly be derived from the maximum range of scenario designs. We anticipate that this cyclical model will meet the demands of MDSS when encountering situational or scenario change, enabling users to conduct scenario case simulation analyses in a maximum range, extend the life span of their systems, and further increase the practical benefits from the development and practical application of information systems.
This study focused on the development of a long-term power supply planning decision support system as a case study. By examining the practical development and establishment process of the case system, and conducting three simulation analyses on scenario cases related to recent energy policies, this study provided implications for decision support. These implications were used to verify the multidimensional integrated system design reference framework proposed in this study, and the results indicated an excellent reference value. The model—scenario design—IT cycle proposed in this study is an interlinked cyclical framework that continuously develops. In the future, this cycle can accommodate the demands of external environmental structures on MDSS. The addition of novel functions and components facilitates the system’s adaptation to the demands of external environmental changes, enabling the ability to independently evolve and develop, cascade information produced by the model, and develop novel techniques and information processing frameworks. Therefore, information is further developed into knowledge, allowing the design framework of MDSS to develop numerous case applications and enrich the significance of design science in ISD.

並列關鍵字

Modeling based decision support system ； Design science ； Long-term power supply planning ； Scenario cases ； Simulation analyse

參考文獻

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