半導體廠商的應收帳款決定因素之探討

應收帳款在企業間的信用交易上佔有重要地位，從應收帳款可評估企業的經營能力與獲利狀況，影響應收帳款的因素包含自身財務、經營政策、產業生態至總體經濟。本文由臺灣經濟新報蒐集2010至2017年電子資訊公司財務報表季資料與經濟部及中央銀行的數種經濟變數，建立追蹤資料模型(Panel data)分析哪些因素對於企業的應收帳款有影響。　　本文自變數包含流動負債、股東權益、營收淨額，電子產業訂單、資訊電子工業生產指數、利率及貨幣供給量並以資產額區分規模研究不同規模的公司是否有不同的結果。首先將原始數據取自然對數，再以一階差分使資料為成長率，可以避免虛假迴歸(spurious regression)。除了當期自變數對當期應收帳款的影響外，也研究落後期自變數對於當期應收帳款的影響，兩季以上的應收帳款會轉為呆帳，故只不納入考慮。　　實證結果證實除了內部因素外、產業景氣和總體經濟也對應收帳款有影響，各種因素有不同的時間性，例如電子產業訂單和貨幣供給量影響速度較快，在當期即有顯著性；電子工業生產指數和利率的影響較慢，落後一期以上才有顯著性。應收帳款的成長或負成長未必是當期經營狀況的好壞，可能來自過去的衝擊後的反彈。

關鍵字

應收帳款；追蹤資料；計量經濟；相關係數；單根檢定

並列摘要

Accounts receivable, by which we can assess the financial statement of a company, plays an important role in credit trading. In this thesis, we collect the financial statements of electronic companies in Taiwan Economic Journal from 2010 to 2017 and several economic variables from the Ministry of Economic Affairs and the Central Bank. We set up a panel data model to analyze which factors impact the company's accounts receivable. In this thesis, independent variables include current liabilities, shareholders' equity, net revenue, electronic industry orders, electronics industry production index, interest rates and money supply. We also categorize the companies by their assets amount to analyze whether results of different sizes of companies varies. We take natural logarithm and first-order difference of the original data to make the data as the growth rate so as to avoid spurious regression. In addition to studying the impact of the current independent variables on the current accounts receivable, we also discuss the impact of the previous independent variables on the current accounts receivable. The accounts receivable for more than two quarters will be converted into bad debts. Therefore, the independent variables for more than two quarters won’t be considered. As the result, we confirm that all of the internal factors, industrial prosperity and the overall economy have an impact on the accounts receivable. Some of the variables have different timeliness. For example, electronic industry orders and money supply have a faster impact, which are significant in the current period. The impact of the electronics industry production index and interest rate are relatively slow, which are significant after one or more periods later. The positive growth or negative growth of current accounts receivable may not be a response to the current business. On the contrary, it may be a rebound of past impacts.