整合投入產出分析與健康風險評估以規劃台灣鉛風險之產業管理

Integrating Input Output Analysis with Risk Assessment to Prioritize Industrial Management Strategies for Lead in Taiwan

葉珈綺(Chia-chi Yeh)

指導教授 ： 馬鴻文

國立臺灣大學/工學院/環境工程學研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.02550

摘要

鉛為台灣使用大的重金屬之一，且廣泛地使用，但鉛卻屬於毒性的物質。過去針對污染物進行健康風險評估時，往往僅考量污染物本身對環境的衝擊，並未將經濟圈產業活動帶動污染排放的影響考量進來，且經濟圈之鉛流動主要受人類活動影響(Klee & Graedel, 2004)，因此本研究使用健康風險評估(Health Risk Assessment，RA)整合投入產出分析(Input-Output Analysis，IO)探討鉛之產業活動與健康風險的關係，作為有效鉛管理的建議。
鉛的污染源以空氣(煙囪)及土壤(掩埋場)兩大污染源為主，以台灣2010年為系統邊界，針對兩污染源進行健康風險評估，煙囪及掩埋場鉛排放量各佔1213.42 公噸、172.1公噸，共有1385.52公噸鉛排放，最終造成的總族群風險3.72 csaes，其中接觸到鉛的風險主要藉由攝食途徑最大，其次為呼吸，飲用水，而攝食又以食用農作物最為影響。進而比較空氣及土壤兩大污染源，由於鉛在土壤中為移動性低的重金屬，考量掩埋場結構安全能阻止污染物外洩，理論上不會有污染物移動到土壤及地下水，故建議台灣鉛管理應以空氣污染源(煙囪)著手較為有效。
研究結果之環境熱點分析，發現台灣鉛排放量高的地區大都是人口數相對高的地區，如台中、台南、高雄及桃園等地區；而族群風險高的縣市以彰化縣及台中市為首，其後依序為台南市、高雄市、桃園縣等；而21個產業部門中，鉛排放造成的族群風險以鋼鐵業(1.1952 cases)為巨，而後依序為其他加工產品(0.368 cases)、塑膠製品(0.3034 cases)、成衣及服飾品(0.2774 cases)、電力及蒸氣(0.2765 cases)、其他化學材料(0.2756 cases)、石油化工原料(0.2153 cases)等產業。
藉著投入產出健康風險評估方法(Input-Output─Risk Assessment，IO-RA)可透視污染經排放後之不同暴露途徑、不同的受體造成的健康風險與產業活動的關聯。研究結果顯示最終需求驅動力以出口(54.84%)及民間消費(28.95%)為造成鉛健康風險增加的主要原因。
最後綜合管理方案，針對鉛相關產業給予環境管理建議，顧及經濟發展的推動及有限的資源下，可見把時間及資源投入於這些產業可以得到最大的風險減量，可達有效管理的目的，故本研究認為效率管理方式為合適的管理建議，從生產端之效率管理其他電子零組件、橡膠製品、其他加工產品、飲料、紡織品、其他化學材料、成衣及服飾品為建議管理的產業，而從消費端之效率管理則以廢棄物清除處理業、成衣及服飾品、橡膠製品、鋼鐵、飲料、其他加工產品為建議管理的產業。本研究利用IO-RA工具了解消費端的最終需求將造成生產端的污染排放，而環境問題的發生每個人都有責任，不應將責任完全歸咎於生產端，因此從供應鏈的生產及消費端雙管齊下的產業管理，有助於健康風險更有效的管控。

關鍵字

鉛 ； 健康風險評估 ； 投入產出分析 ； 產業管理

並列摘要

Lead (Pb) is one of the most widely used heavy metals in Taiwan, but it is toxic. In the past, the harmful impact of pollutants did not considered with a tool to systematically quantify the influence of economic activities on Pb emissions. In fact, the flows of Pb are driven by the human activities, including Pb related manufacture and consumption activities(Klee & Graedel, 2004). Therefore, health risk assessment (RA) and input-output analysis (IO) were integrated in this study to evaluate the relationship between population risks of Pb and industrial sectors’ activities. Finally, several recommendations on the environmental management of Pb are derived from our research.
In this study, two type of major Pb releases were put into our modeling, including air emissions and soil the contamination from landfills. The system boundary of our modeling is Taiwan, in 2010. According to emission database, stack emission was 1213.42 tons Pb and landfill emission was 172.1 tons Pb (1385.52 tons Pb in total). The total emission of Pb may lead to 3.72 carcinogenic cases. It is found that the ingestion pathway was major exposure pathway, and inhalation and drinking of local water was the next. The ingestion of agricultural produce contributed the most to the exposure of ingestion pathway. In addition, Pb has low mobility characteristic in soil and safe liner system of landfill can avoid Pb leakage to the environment. So the reduction of Pb air emission would be the most effective measure to minimize the toxic impact caused by Pb in Taiwan.
In the environment hot spot analysis, it is observed that high exposures tend to occur in the populated city in Taiwan, such as Taichung, Tainan, Kaohsiung, Taoyuan city. Based on risk hot spot, the highest population risk cities are Changhua and Taichung, while Tainan, Kaohsiung and Taoyuan city are the second high. In addition, the ranking of industry sectors that were contributing to total population risk are as follows: steel making (1.1952 cases), other manufacturing products (0.368 cases), plastic products industry (0.3034 cases), wearing apparel and clothing accessories industry (0.2774 cases), power and steam supply (0.2765 cases), other chemical material industry (0.2756 cases) and petrochemicals industry (0.2153 cases).
Integrating tool of IO-RA method, we can prospect the health risk and the economic activities associated with different exposure pathways, different receptors. Hence, the “only the stacks pollute” perspective can be broken. The research results show that export is accounting for 54.84% of the final demand driven risk, and household consumption is accounting for 28.95% of the final demand driven risk.
Environmental management strategies should be formulated based on the sectors of risk concern. The development of strategies toward industries can refer to the results in this study. The purpose of the study is effective management of health risk, which consider environenment and economy aspect to reduce risk largely by investing in limit resource and time. The effective management is the appropriate strategy in this study. From the production aspect, the high priority Pb risk control measures should be on the industries of other electronic parts and component industry, rubber products industry, other manufacturing products industry, beverages industry, textile products industry, other chemical material industry, wearing apparel and clothing accessories industry; from the comsumption aspect, the high priority Pb risk control measures should be on the industries of waste disposal and treatment industry, wearing apparel and clothing accessories industry, rubber products industry, steel making, beverages industry and other manufacturing products industry. Based on the above analysis, our results indicate that everyone should have responsibility for environment problem. It is thoughtless if only criticize on industry production.

並列關鍵字

Lead ； Risk Assessment ； Input Output Analysis ； Industry Management

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