美國小布希政府兩岸政策戰略清晰走向研究 —以戰略三角理論檢視

A Study of George W. Bush’s Cross-Strait Strategic Clarity Policy: Inspecting by Strategic Triangle Theory

蔡宗翰(Chung-Han Tsai)

指導教授 ： 郝培芝

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2008.02357

摘要

小布希政府及其團隊於上任前即抱持戰略清晰構想，認為美國兩岸政策一直以來保持的戰略模糊走向逐漸遭受兩岸的挑戰，所以寄望透過戰略清晰政策來防止兩岸試圖在美方模糊的兩岸政策中採取突破紅線手段。然而小布希兩屆任期內，依舊不斷地遭受兩岸對其台海政策的挑戰。
小布希政府剛上任兩岸政策採取親台立場，但由於九一一事件後反恐需求、經貿需求，美中開始積極發展建設性合作關係。美國從親台立場回到不偏台亦不偏中的兩岸平衡角色。然而隨後台灣自「一邊一國事件」起至「入聯公投事件」一連串的國內政治運動發生，讓華盛頓感受到台灣有意試探美國兩岸政策議題空間。而中國釀起的「反分裂法事件」，則顯示出中國挑戰美國爭搶台海現狀詮釋權的情況。
本文觀察小布希政府兩岸政策戰略清晰走向的困境，歸結出兩項造成困境的主要因素：一是美台之間僵固的雙邊友好關係和兩岸之間大多維持敵對的關係。二是身處於「非自願樞紐」角色困境之中。透過理論分析，將「身份認同意識因素所導致僵固雙邊關係」與「非自願樞紐」兩變數加入「美中台國力不對等戰略三角總體效用模型」排序分析當中，尋求最佳戰略三角型態地位選擇以嘗試解決小布希政府兩岸政策戰略清晰走向所面臨的困境。
從美中台國力不對等戰略三角總體效用模型進行理論分析後，獲得「三邊家族型」戰略三角為最佳戰略三角型態地位選擇的結論。然而從實行面來觀察卻面臨了兩項考驗：
首要考驗是如何持續維繫美台雙邊關係穩定的盟友關係和美國在亞太的軍事佈局？美國希冀兩岸呈現所謂「僵而不破」的關係，兩岸過度走向友好關係並不是華盛頓所樂見的。華盛頓所希冀追求的「三邊家族型」美中台戰略三角，在兩岸側翼友好關係部份是一種「有條件友好」關係。應限縮在經貿層面保持友好與不因意識型態過度敵對而阻礙對話交流機會上，但並不希望兩岸走向軍事層面和解。觀察過往美中台戰略三角互動變化，美中台關係無法長期維持三邊家族型三角；準此以觀，欲維持美中台「三邊家族型」戰略三角關係是有難度的。
第二項考驗來自於兩岸關係內部政治因素。兩岸在開啟經貿交流後，曾一度打破冷對峙時期以來長期維持的僵固敵對雙邊關係，而有了短暫的友好關係。但是大多數的時間依舊持續維持敵對的關係，華盛頓倘若欲朝向建立「三邊家族型」戰略三角、積極扮演兩岸「促進對話者」的角色，則須取決於兩岸內部政治變化。
除了消極面理論分析觀察外，欲解決小布希政府兩岸政策戰越清晰走向困境更為積極務實的作法乃致力於將「非自願樞紐」角色轉為「自願樞紐」角色。華盛頓可由減少與中國在「反獨」上的合作做起。避免讓原本即無籌碼釀成台海緊張的中國獲得在台灣問題上有所突破的空間；並且運用中國在外交上的矛盾做為和中國維繫建設性合作關係的籌碼。
本文透過對於小布希政府兩岸政策走向的研究，在美國國家利益為考量前提之下，以戰略三角理論檢視小布希主政時期戰略清晰走向，歸納出解決困境之積極面與消極面方法，做為華盛頓未來可能選擇途徑的觀察，並提供學政界相關領域進行理論對話。

關鍵字

戰略三角 ； 兩岸政策 ； 小布希 ； 戰略模糊 ； 戰略清晰 ； 非自願樞紐 ； 兩岸關係

並列摘要

Since 1979, Washington has adopted “Strategic Ambiguity” as its guiding principle in dealing with Taiwan and China. But that also has invited both sides of Taiwan Strait to probe the limits and that also has resulted in some crisis during Bill Clinton’s presidency. Before George W. Bush came to his office, he has favored speaking clearly. After he started his presidency, the cross-strait policy of his administration has turned from the strategic ambiguity to “Strategic Clarity” in which Bush uses a dual approach—the US tolerates no Chinese military actions on Taiwan and the US does not support and even is against “Taiwan independence,” to prevent both sides from crossing the red line. However, during his eight-year presidency, challenges to the policy have never stopped.
In this study, I have tried to examine the dilemma of President George W. Bush’s “Strategic Clarity” policy and found out two crucial factors contributing to this difficult situation: first, the rigid U.S. and Taiwan friendly bilateral-relationship and the adversarial relationship between the two sides of Taiwan Strait. Second, the U.S. has fallen into the dilemma of “Unintended Pivot.” By means of theoretical analysis, two variables, the rigid friendly bilateral-relationship and the dilemma of “Unintended Pivot”, which result from self-identity consciousness, will be put into the Asymmetrical Triangles Macro Utility Pattern analytical pattern to search for the best Asymmetrical Triangle Macro Pattern so as to help clear away all the obstacles in the way of President Bush’s Strategic Clarity Policy for the Cross-Strait dilemma.
After the theoretical analysis of the Asymmetrical Triangles Macro Utility Pattern, I have got a conclusion that the “M’ enage a trios”strategic triangle is the best strategic triangle shape.
However, while put into practice, the“M’ enage a trios”strategic triangle would face two challenges. The first one is whether the United States can maintain its stable bilateral relations of allies with Taiwan as well as its Asia-Pacific military layout. The fact is that, though the U.S. has been seeking for the cross-strait economic and trade cooperation instead of ideological confrontation between both sides of the Strait., it would not be happy to see them move toward reconciliation on the military level. The second challenge lies in the internal political changes. If Washington intends to move toward the establishment of a “trilateral family-type (M’ enage a trios)” strategic triangle, and would like to promote the cross-strait dialogue, the internal political factors should be taken into consideration.
In addition to the ongoing examinations and theoretical analysis, some measures can be taken, such as reducing the cooperation with China on "anti-independence" issues, and making use of Chinese negative image in some of the diplomatic contradictions as a bargaining chip to maintain “the relationship of constructive cooperation” with China.
In this study, George W. Bush’s strategic clarity policy has been inspected through the strategic triangle theory in the U.S. national interests’ premise, with a conclusion indicating solutions to the dilemma of the U.S., in hope to offer the result of my efforts for theoretical dialogue on this subject among the academic and political circles.

並列關鍵字

Strategic Triangle ； Strategic Ambiguity ； Strategic Clarity ； Unintended Pivot ； Cross-Strait ； Bush ； Asymmetrical Triangle

參考文獻

吳玉山，2000，〈台灣總統大選對於兩岸關係產生的影響：選票極大化模式與戰略三角途徑〉，《遠景季刊》，1(3):1:27。

涂志堅、唐欣偉，2001，〈從總統觀點看柯林頓時期的美中台戰略三角〉，《遠景季刊》，2(2):163-195。

徐斯勤，2005，〈「美中台三角關係」的新發展〉，《和平論壇》。

涂志堅、唐欣偉，2001，〈從總體觀點看柯林頓時期的美中台戰略三角〉，《遠景季刊》，2(2):163-195。

楊永明，2004，〈台灣民主化與台灣安全保障〉，《台灣民主季刊》，1(3): 1-25。