企業財務危機成因之探討
—在景氣擴張、衰退下之比較

關於企業財務危機的預測一直以來皆是學術界與實務界廣受討論的議題，因企業財務危機的發生會造成企業內部、上下游廠商、社會之動盪，而本研究欲藉財務預警模型，找出造成企業發財務危機之主因。然而財務危機之定義不一，因此前半部本文會探討財務危機之定義，而在本研究中財務危機定義因操作之方便性，採用「TEJ 台灣經濟新報」之定義，以台灣上市上櫃公司為樣本。在選用的變數方面，除考慮傳統之財務變數外，亦考慮公司治理之變數、總體經濟之變數。在景氣擴張、景氣衰退階段企業可能會因對營運展望的不同而有不同的決策，進而使在不同的景氣循環階段有不同的因素造成企業財務危機，因此本研究先區分出台灣的景氣循環，找出在擴張、衰退階段發生財務危機之公司，並以一家危機公司配對三家正常公司為配對方式，以Logit模型搭配景氣擴張、循環之虛擬變數為交乘項為研究方法，探討在不同景氣階段下造成企業失敗的原因為何。此外，就發生財務危機最頻繁的電子業、建築業、紡織業，分別探討是什麼因素造成它們發生財務危機。經實證結果發現「總資產周轉率(次)」在景氣衰退階段對企業財務危機的發生影響大，而本研究所選用之變數較適用於電子業財務危機之發生解釋，可知依照不同的景氣循環及產業別探討企業發生財務危機之成因，有其必要性。

關鍵字

財務預警；景氣循環； Logit模型；財務變數

並列摘要

The topic about the prediction of corporate financial failure has far been discussed, no matter in Taiwan or abroad. The bankruptcy of a corporate not only directly affects its employees and suppliers, but all the society, especially for listed corporates. In this way, the purpose of this paper is to find out the factors that cause the corporate financial failure by using the financial signaling model. Since there is no unite definition of financial failure, this paper provides the reviews of definition of the financial failure. The definition of financial failure in this paper is defined by “Taiwan Economic Journal Databases “. In addition to financial ratios, to examine the effect of corporate governance and the macroeconomic on corporate financial failure, this paper also uses the variables such as “stock held by the board” and “ GDP growth ratio” to see how these two factors can affect the corporate failure. The other point of this paper is to find out if the economic cycle can make any change to the factors that cause the financial failure. Firstly, uses the economic cycles defined by Taiwan’s government and find out the companies suffered from financial failure in each period. The matching principle used in the paper is 1:3, that is one failure corporate with 3 normal corporates without financial failure. In this paper, Logit Model was used with the adoption of dummy variable in representative of economic expansion and recession. Also, this paper examines if there is any difference among the factors cause corporate financial distress between different industries. From the result, it’s obvious that the “Asset Turnover Ratio” plays an important role during the financial recession and the variables chosen in this paper are better indication of the reasons that cause financial failure to Electronics Industry. The importance and the necessity to discuss the reasons behind the corporate financial failure accords to the economic cycle and different industries are shown in the result.

並列關鍵字

Financial Signaling Model ； Economic Cycle ； Logit Model ； Financial Ratio

參考文獻

1. 余惠芳、王永昌，2011 <財務預警與公司治理-台灣傳統產業之實證研究>應用經濟論叢90期

5. 黃志力，2007<企業財務危機預測-以類神經網路建構產業別預警模式>

9. 蔡璧徽、黃鈺萍，2010 <財務危機預測模型之比較分析>

11. 林郁翎、黃建華， 2009 <考慮公司治理之企業財務危機預警模型> 第一銀行金融服務官方網站

7. 沈中華、林公韻，2006 <2006違約機率與極端值-Robust Logistic Regression>

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企業財務危機成因之探討 —在景氣擴張、衰退下之比較

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