設置機車停等區對號誌化交叉路口猶豫區間影響之研究

台灣地區之主要道路路口大多已劃設機車停等區，此方式確實提高了路口效率。但道路幾何設計的任何改變都有可能對現有車流造成影響，國內目前並未對設置機車停等區後，對號誌設計做適當之調整，路口號誌延用原有時相長度很可能已經不符合新的道路狀況，為了解路口的改變是否對駕駛者產生影響，進而影響交通行車安全，本研究將利用「猶豫區間」的概念，探討設置與未設置機車停等區車道的駕駛者決策狀況。由於機車停等區的設置可能造成路口的影響，本研究便針對三個不同道路配置的路口，進行實地的錄影調查分析，並透過調查現況資料建立logistic迴歸模型，構建出駕駛者之選擇決策模式，用以估計駕駛者於各路口選擇通過路口或停止的機率，以作為設計綠燈介間時間長度之依據。所構建之模式並經由相關檢定結果之參數，了解模式之可靠度及正確性，後續再藉由模式計算結果進行分析，配合路口資料分析的結果，進而提出改善方案。經本研究分析，影響駕駛者是否通過路口的主要顯著變數為車輛速度與黃燈始亮時車輛距停止線距離兩變數。且透過模式結果可以發現，設有機車停等區車道上之車輛於三個調查路口皆有較一般未設置停等區車道上之車輛有更冒險之穿越路口行為。本研究認為，應該利用本研究模式所計算之改善黃燈時間，降低駕駛人冒險穿越路口的機率，並考量路口之停等區深度計算出所實際所需之全紅時間長度，以確保行車安全無虞。

關鍵字

猶豫區間；羅吉斯(Logistic)迴歸模型；機車停等區；綠燈介間時間；駕駛者選擇決策模式

並列摘要

In recent years, our government placed motorcycle waiting zones on most of the main crossroads in Taiwan. This method indeed raises the efficiency of crossroads. But any change in road design may have an influence on current vehicle flow. We also do not change the signal phase length after placing motorcycle waiting zones. The original phase length may not meet the actual demand of drivers. To figure out if the motorcycle waiting zones affect the drivers or not, we will use the concept of “dilemma zone” to analyze the difference of driver behavior between lanes with a motorcycle waiting zones and lanes without motorcycle waiting zones. We recorded three crossroads with difference lane numbers and read the data in the videotapes. Through the data read, we make an initial analysis and then build a logistic regression model. The model can tell the probability of a driver that he will choose to cross or stop at the crossroad. We can use the probability to be the basis of setting the intergreen time. According to the analysis result, we know the significant variables are “the distance from the stop line when facing yellow light” and “vehicle speed”. From the data and model, we also find that the drivers on the lanes with motorcycle waiting zones are more aggressive than the drivers on the lanes without motorcycle waiting zones. So we concluded that we should use the modified yellow light phase length to decrease the probability of drivers taking risking crossing the crossroads and use the recommended intergreen time phase length to ensure the safety.

並列關鍵字

Dilemma zone ； Logistic regression model ； Motorcycle waiting zone ； Intergreen time ； Driver decision model

參考文獻

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國際替代計量

設置機車停等區對號誌化交叉路口猶豫區間影響之研究

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