最適資源分配之工程進度及成本管理模式之研究

Research for Engineering Cost/Schedule Distribution of Right Resource

周進華(Chin-Hua Chou)

指導教授 ： 廖慶隆

共同指導教授 ： 曾惠斌

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2008.02497

摘要

本研究首先對計畫評核術及實獲值的觀念及相關文獻做介紹，並對目前營建工程趕工執行方式作一敘述，再藉文獻中計畫評核術在工期中預留風險之觀念，以及實獲值在分析作業成本方面的觀念，配合由專家及營建工程執行經驗統計出來的增長與縮短工期各因素，整理出成本及工期增減因素之表格，使施工作業可以系統化方式套用表格，藉估計各施工作業之最短、最長工期和其成本，再將結果代入施工網圖中，推導出藉調整作業工期來降低專案成本的方式；研究流程為先尋找一個專案案例，編列施工網圖，並將施工網圖內每一作業做成本分析，再套入工期增減因素之表格，求出各作業在工期變化所產生的成本差異，正常狀態下的工期及成本稱之「正常工期」，最趕工狀態之工期最短，成本通常為最高，稱之「最趕工期」，成本最低通常工期較長，稱之「最省工期」，其次將每一作業分別以這三種工期及成本分別代入專案進度網圖中，求出每一組合的專案成本及工期，藉尋找出在同樣工期下，作業組合之最低成本，其貢獻為在有限的趕工成本下，選擇效率最佳的趕工作業，以達到工期與成本之趨近最佳化，但由於所有作業都有3個組合，若作業數為N，則排程結果數＝3N，作業項目數只要超過20個以上，一般電腦之整數值就已無法處理，為了簡化計算，本研究利用數值分析理論中線性規畫(Linear Programming)，類似單形法(Simplex method) 之觀念，推導一套求解專案之趨近最低成本排程之方法，並寫成程式，使大型專案亦可使用本方式求解。

關鍵字

最適資源分配

並列摘要

This research starts in the introduction of the concept and related academic papers of both PERT(Program Evaluation and Review Technique) and Earned Value Analysis, also describe current common construction acceleration methods. Next it try to derive normal duration, rush duration and economize duration from Combining theoretical varied duration consideration for risk evaluation in PERT with activity cost estimated by Earned Value Method and systemize practical construction expert experience and statistical time and cost impact factors with data sheet, then compile the program network to infer the best solution to decrease construction cost by adjusting activity duration.
The process begins at one programmed project schedule network, estimate the cost for each activity, then calculate cost variance when duration changes by the assumed time impact factors; the results could be classified as three types of duration models for the further analysis which are “normal duration” accompanied with cost under general condition, “rush duration” accompanied with highest cost under most rush situation, “economize duration” accompanied with lowest cost when it is not hurried.
Next step is to compile the schedule network by using the above-mentioned different activity durations to obtain the project duration and cost for every combination, find the lowest cost with same project duration. It could provide solution for the most efficient acceleration plan within budget limitation and optimize the project to the reasonable duration arrangement with the lowest cost.
Aware that if there are N activities in the project network, it shall exceed the limit that computer could process when N >20 due to the complicated 3N combination of the computation results. In order to simplified the intricate calculation and make it more practical to the real large construction projects, Linear Programming out of numerical analysis method is applied in the research, the optimized project schedule network solution shall be derived and computer programmed by the concept closed Simplex method of Linear Programming.

並列關鍵字

Cost/Schedule Distribution

參考文獻

2.方述誠，「線性規劃(Linear Programm-ing) 」數學傳播十七卷一期，1993

15.廖國禎，「Monte Carlo for Primavera 在預測總工期的應用」，2002年

16.廖慶隆/曾惠斌/盧崇仁，「工程專案標單與施工採購計畫間營建資訊整合之研究」，96年電子計算機與土木水利工程應用研討會，96年

17.郭斯傑/廖慶隆/江佳綺，「類機體電路排成模式應用於多專案管理」，營建管理季刊第69期，95年

1.周祥東，「實獲值管理」，中華專案管理學會，2007年7月