薩利赫的興衰：葉門社會的變遷與衝突(1978-2017)

對現代性的想像常讓人在看待非西方政體時，僅專注於制度化的政治行動者如政黨、地方自治體與中央間的互動等，而忽略運行制度時不同社會間落差，導致分析脫離事實。葉門在 20 世紀走上制度現代化，其現代化進程也伴隨著傳統社會力量間的拉扯。本研究將著眼於薩利赫統治葉門的1978-2017年之政治發展，並以該政體作為檢視之案例。葉門共和國(Republic of Yemen, RoY)成立於1990年，繼承了北葉門高地宰德派政體的傳統，也吸收了南葉門社會主義共和國的政治遺緒。薩利赫在1978年就任葉門阿拉伯共和國(Yemen Arab Republic, YAR)總統職位後，採取與部落勢力合作的策略，一方面以特許利益酬庸，一方面也動用制度化的國家機器，將部落秩序拉入YAR治理之中;南北議題方面，薩利赫面對意識形態迥異的葉門社會黨人，其支持原教旨主義，對付兩葉門統一進程中不斷進犯的游擊隊勢力。最終，薩利赫在1980年代中期取得話語權優勢，主導葉門共和國成立。在制度變遷之外，隨著跨國網絡的互動與現代媒體影響，北方的宰德派社群在不滿情緒中逐漸激進化;統一後的南葉門社群，亦不滿薩利赫不對稱的汲取措施，在1993年RoY首次大選後，南方菁英出走，薩利赫僅能擴張自己的酬庸範圍，以安撫南方的不滿。2001 年葉門加入「反恐」陣營，與西方大國合作的態度激怒了許多薩利赫酬庸的社會力量。原教旨主義團體持續在南方擴張、宰德派Houthis運動也逐漸威脅了沙那的政權，加上南方運動(al-Hirak)興起，葉門社會對薩利赫的反感伴隨著 2010 年代的阿拉伯革命達到高峰，致使其於2012年下野，並退居其一手創立的政黨GPC背後直至身亡。本研究透過檢視部落、原教旨主義、大國背景與南北問題等因素探討，加上大國角力之背景，說明薩利赫政府的興衰。在檢視歷史檔案與新聞動態後，發現制度化進程對葉門境內不同政治行動者未產生根本性的影響，導致葉門作為一現代國家不過是名目外殼，事實上葉門社會仍處於部落秩序與宗教鑲嵌的社會規範之中。

關鍵字

葉門；薩利赫；伊斯蘭；原教旨主義；部落政治；南方運動；葉門社會黨

並列摘要

The imagination of modernity sometimes leads people to concentrate on the interaction of institutional actors such as political parties and local governing bodies, making them ignore the gap between different societies. Thus, when analyzing political systems of some late-coming democracies, it comes with a rupture between what it is and what it should be. Yemen started its institutional modernization in the 20th century, and the process of it has brought with many conflicts among the traditional actors. Former President Ali Abdullah Saleh (1947-2017) and the Republic of Yemen (RoY) under his ruling will be employed as a case to examine the gap between the institutional system and its social foundations. The Republic of Yemen, established in 1990, inherited the tradition of the Zayd tribe in North Yemen and adopted the Yemeni socialism legacy from the South. After taking control of the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) in 1978, Saleh used concessions and preferential treatments to cast YAR into an apparatus to convey benefits between YAR and major tribes. Also, he employed Islamic fundamentalists to fight against the guerrilla supported by the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) in the South in the era of Yemen unification negotiation. Before the eve of unification in 1990, Saleh had gained the dominance of the unification process, which led the YAR and PDRY into the establishment of the RoY. Due to the influence of cross-border interaction and modern media, the northern Zayd community gradually radicalized; and the after-unified southern Yemen community was not satisfied that Saleh's partial benefit to the Northern tribes. After the first presidential election in 1993, the vice president al-Beidh renegade and backed to Aden, Selah can no longer control the south effectively since then, but he employed the abundant oil interest and the support of the highland tribes and specific leaders of the South, the Sanaa authority was relatively stable. After 2001, Yemen joined the US "War on Terror" camp, which turned many social forces once supported Saleh to opponents. Fundamentalist groups gradually expanded, and Houthis became an obstacle to RoY's governing. In addition to the rise of the Southern Movement (al-Hirak), social groups’ resentment peaked during the Arab Revolution in the early 2010s, leading Saleh's resignation in 2012 and then forced him could only exercise his limited power behind the GPC. This study illustrates the rise and fall of the Saleh governing by examining primary social dynamics: tribes, Islam fundamentalism, Great Powers, and the North-South issue in Yemen. After revisiting historical documents and news archives, a wider picture of Saleh's rise and down have emerged. For its cheap manipulating on different political actors in the process of institutionalization, Yemen as a whole was only a nominal label, the social system embedded in tribes and Islam may be the de facto norm to the Yemeni society today.