東亞國際體系的權力轉移與兩岸關係

The International System of East-Asia and Cross-Strait Relations — Power Transitions Theory Approach

馬準威(Chun-Wei Ma)

指導教授 ： 張亞中

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2007.03243

摘要

中國崛起是近年來國際關係中的一個顯著現象，吸引各個領域學者以不同的研究途徑切入觀察，因而取得豐富多元的研究成果。對國際政治研究者而言，一些耳熟能詳的理論經常被當作分析工具，套用在這個議題上，這些工具也往往給予我們許許多多的刺激與思考。不管從新現實主義的體系結構而論，還是從霸權穩定理論的興衰史而觀，都一再提醒了我們國際政治的多變與詭譎。
權力轉移理論最有趣的嘗試乃是來自於對一些數學邏輯的應用，這是受到國際關係簡約主義的影響，試圖建構一套類似自然科學的簡化因果關係。半個世紀以來權力轉移理論的假設不斷受到探討、檢驗與充實，使得今日的我們幾乎可以取得整套現成的器具，用來觀察冷戰產生兩極體系以來從來不曾出現過的現象，原本的霸權國家顯現相對衰退的趨勢，挑戰國家的興起卻持續蓬勃發展。這樣一個發展態勢究竟會為人類帶來災難還是新的契機至今尚難定論，本研究因此將權力轉移理論當作框架，具體應用在東亞霸權結構的觀察，以求得東亞大國未來的互動傾向，好作為體系層面影響國際行為者的觀察，進而論述同為東亞國際體系成員的兩岸彼此間互動的關係。
第一章除了作為研究設計的本體之外，同時透過文獻回顧以掌握權力轉移理論的思想脈絡，透過演化的邏輯思索，確保權力轉理論的使用能夠契合其精神。第二章純粹探討權力轉移理論如何成為分析框架，介紹理論原理原則並適時加以補充。第三章應用權力轉移理論的框架分析東亞局勢，並進一步討論東亞強權間的互動關係。第四章從體系層次論述涉台的三個不同三角關係，以利判斷未來的互動與發展，更帶入權力轉移理論的觀點，與事實面的相互對應。第五章討論兩岸關係的實然面及透過權力轉移理論的觀察看待未來兩岸關係的發展傾向。第六章結論，除了對研究成果加以發表也提供對將來研究者的研究方向的建議。
由於權力轉移理論內涵本身仍在演進，長期以來國內學界因而忽視此理論做為一個研究途徑的可能性，國內相關文獻呈現相對缺乏的局面。本文除了依據上述的脈絡來進行外，也針對權力轉移理論的本身進行觀察與補強，算是把權力轉移理論具體應用在美中關係、中日關係與兩岸關係研究的一種新嘗試，用具體的數據呈現國際關係的可預期性，也對中國從當下的國際強權邁向未來可能的霸權之路，帶入全新的觀察視野。

關鍵字

權力轉移理論 ； 東亞國際體系 ； 中國崛起 ； 美中日台四邊關係 ； 兩岸關係

並列摘要

In recently years, the rising of China has been quite a conspicuous phenomenon in international relations and attracted many scholars in different fields to observe and analyze it from various approaches. In Taiwan, most of the prior researches on this topic took well-known theories such as neo-realism or theory of hegemonic stability as their analytic instruments but neglected the viewpoints of the power transitions theory. One of the aims of this thesis is to supplement this theory vacuum and applies the power transitions theory in analyzing the international power structure in East-Asia.
The power transitions theory consists of a large number of original factors. The most interesting one is the usage of mathematical logics. In past 50 years, having been continuously tested, revised and verified, the power transitions theory has greatly improved and developed many useful hypotheses. Nowadays, we could take it as a convenient tool for analyzing the relations between great powers very easily.
U.S. has been a hegemony in the post cold-war period and created a global “Pan-Americana” order. However, it is unknown that how long U.S. could keep this predominance in East-Asia, because of complex international situations: not only China is rising rapidly and has a chance to challenge the status of U.S. but also Japan has the same potency to become the dominant power in East-Asia. Given these backgrounds, this thesis takes power transitions theory as an operation framework to estimate the variations of international power structure in East-Asia and further investigates the Cross- Taiwan-Strait relations.
The works of “Preface” (Chapter One) presents the research proposal of the thesis. Chapter Two is “Power Transitions Theory under International Relations Theory”. This chapter not only explains the connections between power transitions theory and other international relations theories like rationalism, neo-realism, strategy triangle theory and hegemonic stability theory, but also inquires the operation variants of power transitions theory such as nation capacity, status inconsistency, a concept of overtaking, alliance and phoenix factor. Chapter Three, “Implications of Power Transitions Theory in East-Asia Structure”, uses the theoretical implements taken from the former chapter to study the triangular relations of U.S., China and Japan. In Chapter Four, “Three Taiwan-Related Triangles”, the interactions and inter-influences between Taiwan and great powers in East-Asia under the structure provided in Chapter Three is discussed. Chapter Five is “the Cross-Taiwan-Strait Relations”, which studies Taiwan-China bilateral relations. A hermeneutic aspect of power transitions theory is used here. Furthermore, this chapter extends the arguments of the three triangular relationships presented in Chapter Four to explain Cross-Taiwan-Strait relations. The final chapter concludes different viewpoints this thesis provides and suggests some further research issues that couldn’t be studied in this thesis for the scholars who are interested in this topic.
The implications of power transitions theory have developed many important hypotheses and evolved unceasingly till today. In Taiwan it seems that only few scholars show interests in it. This thesis is very useful for understanding the power transitions theory and acquired some findings that could refine the principles of the theory. The approach used in this thesis is a brand new attempt to link the East-Asia regional study and the Cross-Taiwan-Strait relations research. It provides us a chance to observe and deliberate the international situations in East Asia from another prospective.

並列關鍵字

Power Transitions Theory ； East-Asia System ； The Rising of China ； the Relations between U.S., China, Japan and Taiwan ； Cross-Taiwan-Strait Relations

參考文獻

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