金融自由化對亞洲國家經濟表現的影響─ 合成控制法

The Impact of Financial Liberalization on The Economic Performance of Selected Asian Countries-synthetic control method

陳亭旭(Ting-Hsu Chen)

指導教授 ： 林佩蒨

淡江大學/商管學院/產業經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2015.00007

摘要

在1980與1990年代越來越多新興國家實施金融自由化，希望能提升經濟成長。很多先前的研究使用跨國的資料估計金融自由化對增長的影響，然而這很可能會產生內生性的問題，因此，利用比較案例分析可能是一個不錯的選擇。本文採用合成控制法(synthetic control method (SCM))來估計金融自由化對一些亞洲國家經濟表現的影響。研究期間從1978年至2004年，樣本共包含20個國家，其中有八個亞洲國家，巴基斯坦、印度、印尼、馬來西亞、孟加拉、菲律賓、斯里蘭卡與泰國。實證結果顯示:
1. 在本文金融自由化對經濟發展有顯著的正面影響的國家包含印尼、泰國和馬來西亞。菲律賓是亞洲四小虎(馬來西亞、泰國、印度尼西亞和菲律賓)中唯一金融自由化對經濟表現的影響不顯著的國家。
2. 金融自由化對印度、孟加拉、斯里蘭卡三國的經濟表現並無顯著的影響。而巴基斯坦是九個國家中，金融自由化後唯一呈現受到負向影響的國家。
3. 金融自由化帶來正面影響的國家，通常伴隨著一些成功的政治或經濟改革措施，強化了金融自由化的影響，如馬來西亞的新經濟政策、印尼強人蘇哈托的崛起。不穩定的政治與不健全的基礎建設則可削弱金融自由化帶來的正面影響，甚至造成負面影響。

關鍵字

金融自由化 ； 合成控制法

並列摘要

In the 1980s and 1990s, more and more emerging economies initiated financial liberalization in the hope to boost their economic growth. However, many previous studies using cross-country data to study this issue generally infer the growth effect of financial liberalization on average and possibly suffer endogeneity problem.For that concern, a comparative case study may be an attractive alternative. In this paper, I use the synthesis control method (SCM) to reinvestigate the impact of financial liberalization on the economic performance of selected Asian countries.My sample contains a total 20 countries, including eight targeted Asian countries, i.e., ,India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Thailand and 12 control countries. The empirical findings are as follows:
1.Financial liberalization has significant positive impact onthe economic performance of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.
2.On the other hand, financial liberalization exerts no significant growth effect in Bangladesh , India, Pakistan , the Philippines, and Sri Lanka.
3.For those countries with positive growth effect resulting from financial liberalization, there are usually a number of successful political or economic reform measures accompanied In addition, political instability and inadequate infrastructure can undermine the positive impact of financial liberalization.

並列關鍵字

Financial liberalization ； synthetic control method

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