蔡英文時期的兩岸政策及其對兩岸關係的影響
（2016~2019）

由於中國大陸經濟、軍事力量的逐漸崛起，使得中國大陸的對台政策也隨著中國大陸國力的提升更具影響力，而蔡英文總統自2016年擔任中華民國總統後，兩岸關係進入了新的局面。由於蔡英文政府對於「九二共識」的排拒，使得兩岸缺乏互信，而陷入冷對抗局面，因此本文探討蔡英文總統的兩岸關係觀點的脈絡，及其兩岸政策對於我經濟、外交及軍事威脅的影響，並瞭解中國大陸目前對我政策的調整以及未來可能發展。最後透過研究結果、分析配套方案供政府機關單位參考之方向。蔡英文政府上臺後，對於「九二共識」的認知上拒絕承認一個中國的觀點，已破壞兩岸原先建構自馬英九執政時期兩岸「外交休兵」的默契，因此中國大陸對臺灣問題國際化的反制措施也越來越強烈，進入了熱對抗的情境。而在經貿上，由於兩岸官方溝通管道完全停擺的狀況下，可能會造成台灣經濟成長停滯的負面結果。因此，中國大陸開始直接對台灣人民釋出善意，開始全新的兩岸交流模式。如習近平上臺後，直接推出「惠台31 條措施」，不僅跨過台灣政府的交流，直接開啟台灣民眾間的另一溝通管道。透過本文分析結果發現，蔡政府上臺後兩岸關係急速惡化的重點在於對於「九二共識」的不同調，在兩岸變成沒有共同認知的基礎下進而無法有效地展開對談；其次是兩岸缺乏有效溝通管道。因此，在兼顧國家安全的前提之下，我們仍必須積極推動兩岸交流，惟有交流才能增進兩岸的瞭解。因此，本文建議蔡英文總統提出一些「具體的政策」來改善兩岸關係，重新審慎思考如何重新建立兩岸彼此信任的基礎，展現務實彈性，就能夠為兩岸開拓一條新的道路以達雙贏的局面。

關鍵字

蔡英文；九二共識；兩岸關係；惠台31項措施

並列摘要

With the gradual rise of China's economy and military power, China’s influence on Taiwan has become more powerful. Since President Tsai Ing-wen has served as the president of the Republic of China in 2016, cross-strait relations have entered a new era. Due to the rejection of the "92 Consensus" by the Tsai Ing-Wen’s government, Taiwan and China Mainland lacked mutual trust and entered a confrontational situation. Therefore, this article explores the context of President Tsai Ing-wen's views on cross-strait relations, and the impact of cross-strait policies of Tsai Ing-wen's goveronment on my economic, diplomatic, and military threats. And understands the current adjustments to China's policies and possible future developments in China. Finally, through the research results, provide supporting programs for the direction of government agencies. After the Tsai Ing-Wen's government took office, the refusal to recognize one China has already undermined the tacit understanding between the two sides of the strait that was originally constructed during the Ma Ying-Jeou period. Therefore, the China mainland’s counter-measures against Taiwan have become stronger and stronger, and they have entered the confrontational situation. As the official communication channel between the two sides of the strait is completely shut down, it may cause a negative result of the stagnant economic growth in Taiwan. Therefore, the Chinese mainland began to release goodwill directly to the people of Taiwan and began a new cross-strait exchange model. After Xi Jin-Ping took office, he offer of 31 professional and economic incentives to Taiwanese citizens, which not only crossed the exchanges of the Taiwan government, but also directly opened another communication channel between the Taiwanese people. Through the analysis of this paper, it is found that the reason for the deterioration of cross-strait relations after the Tsai's government took office is due to the differences between the two sides on the "1992 consensus." So that the two sides cannot effectively conduct talks without common understanding, moreover, there is a lack of effective communication channels between the two sides. Therefore, under the premise of balancing national security, we must still actively promote cross-strait exchanges. Only exchanges can enhance cross-strait understanding. So, this paper suggests that President Tsai Ing-wen should propose some "specific policies" to improve cross-strait relations, rethink carefully how to re-establish the foundation of mutual trust between the two sides of the strait, demonstrate pragmatic flexibility, and open up a new path for the two sides to achieve a win-win situation.