蔡英文時期的大陸政策及對兩岸關係的影響(2016-2020)

思考當今兩岸關係的現況時，都應正視兩項不可忽視的因素，首先，兩岸自1949國共內戰國民政府撤退遷台，雙方呈現出權力大小不對稱的結構，在可預見的將來這種結構不會有所調整差距只會不斷擴大，第二項因素自從韓戰爆發後兩岸關係就增添了國際角力的色彩，而尤以美中兩大超強影響最為深遠。 2014年的「太陽花學運」爆發後，使得民進黨主席蔡英文穩超勝算的以689萬4744票贏得了中華民國第十四任總統選舉，但在民共長期無互信的條件上陸方勢必關注蔡英文講話中對兩岸的政治定位及後續大陸政策的推動走向。如今蔡英文政府任期屆滿適逢2020再續第二任之任期，顯而易見的兩岸互信程度低迷不會有所改善，又有雙方民意上的碰撞，因此未來兩岸無論在法制上的衝突或是台灣在外交及國際空間上的窄化及新南向政策和區域經濟合作的洽簽受阻是政府未來必須去省思之當務之急，而檢視蔡英文上任後對兩岸關係的論述就顯得具有其迫切性和必要性。而本研究將蒐集蔡英文政府的重要文告及講話，用以解讀蔡英文其內心對於兩岸關係定位及後續大陸政策的推動措施。本文設定之時間點僅從蔡英文政府上台的2016年5月20日始至2020年5月20日的蔡英文就職演說為主軸，分析蔡英文上任前後對於兩岸論述之變化而當中對於兩岸的政治定位及後續政策的推動，以及中國大陸對其大陸政策之回應所產生對兩岸關係的效應。

關鍵字

九二共識；大陸政策；去中國化；法理台獨

並列摘要

When considering the current status of cross-strait relations, we should face two factors that cannot be ignored. First, the nationalist government withdrawn to Taiwan since the 1949 Kuomintang Civil War, the two sides have shown an asymmetrical structure of power. This structure will not be changed in the foreseeable future. The second factor has included international wrestling since the the Korean War, especially the two superpowers that is United States and China. After the outbreak of the Sunflower Student Movement in 2014, Tsai Ing-wen, the chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party, won the 14th presidential election of the Republic of China with 6.8694744 votes, but China’s president have a long-term lack of mutual trust with the Democratic Party. That is the reason why China’s president will pay attention to the implication of Tsai Ing-wen's speech on the political positioning of the cross-strait relation even the follow-up of the mainland policy. Now that the Tsai Ing-wen government is due to coincide with the renewal of the second term in 2020, it is obvious that the low level of mutual trust between the two sides of the strait will not improve, and there will be a collision of public opinion between the two sides. Therefore, the conflict of the legal system or Taiwan’s narrowing of diplomacy and international space. In the future our New Southbound policy and regional economic cooperation all will be obstructed form China. So that it is very urgent and necessary for our government. This study will collect important announcements and speeches of the Tsai Ing-wen government to interpret the Tsai Ing-wen government's inner positioning of cross-strait relations and the direction of the subsequent mainland policy.